Prediction for match AZ Alkmaar — Telstar

Who is the favorite in the AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar match?

AZ Alkmaar and Telstar will face off in the KNVB Cup on March 4th. The odds for an AZ Alkmaar victory are 1.41, a draw is at 4.75, and a Telstar win is valued at 6.78. In terms of probability, AZ Alkmaar has a 66.45% chance of winning, a draw is at 19.73%, and Telstar has a 13.82% chance. This confirms AZ Alkmaar's status as the favorite, but Telstar isn't without hope. There are various options for total goals: over 2.5 goals is at 1.53, both teams to score - yes at 1.75, no at 1.97. This suggests that bookmakers expect a high-scoring game but don't rule out cautious play.

Team results and statistics

In the last five matches, AZ Alkmaar has an average ball possession of 58.2%, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 12.4 fouls, and records 0.6 offsides per game. Telstar has 47.8% possession, 0.8 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In AZ Alkmaar's last three matches: March 1 - Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar 2-0, February 26 - AZ Alkmaar vs Noah 4-0, February 22 - AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam 3-1. Telstar's recent games: February 27 - Telstar vs NAC Breda 3-0, February 22 - Feyenoord vs Telstar 2-1, February 15 - Telstar vs Twente 1-1. In their head-to-head on January 25, Telstar lost to AZ Alkmaar 0-1.

How many goals will be in the AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar match?

Over a series of five matches, AZ Alkmaar has an average total of 2.8 goals, while Telstar has 2.6. Both teams score well: AZ Alkmaar with 1.8 goals per game, Telstar with 1.6. Both concede an average of 1 goal. In terms of over 2.5 goals: both teams have 3 out of 5 games ending with three or more goals. In the first half, over 1.5 goals were seen for AZ Alkmaar twice, and once for Telstar out of 5. In the second half, both teams played 3 out of 5 over 1.5. For goal intervals: AZ Alkmaar often scores between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (27% each), Telstar in the same periods but with slightly higher frequency (33%). AZ Alkmaar conceded 100% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period, Telstar 50% in the same interval. Overall, both teams show a tendency for high-scoring football, especially in the second half. Based on this data, considering over 2.5 goals at 1.53 as the main prediction makes sense.

Analysis of corner totals

AZ Alkmaar averages 4.6 corners per match, Telstar 3.6. In a five-match series, AZ Alkmaar had over 9.5 corners only once, Telstar twice out of 5. The closest corner total with odds is 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.62, under 9.5 at 2.08. AZ Alkmaar is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.33. Considering the average numbers and the tendency for second-half activity, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified.