Prediction for match Bastia — Troyes

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Coupe de France on January 10, Bastia will face Troyes. The odds for a Troyes win are set at 2.36, while a Bastia victory is given at 3.00, and a draw is at 3.16. The outcome probabilities are distributed as follows: Bastia is rated at 31.05%, a draw at 29.48%, and Troyes at 39.47%. According to the odds and percentages, Troyes has a slight edge, but the gap between the teams isn't significant, promising an intriguing match-up.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at Bastia's last three matches, they defeated Grenoble 1-0 (03.01.2026), won against Pontivy GSI 1-0 (20.12.2025), and drew with Saint-Étienne 2-2 (13.12.2025). In their last three encounters, Troyes beat Red Star 1-0 (03.01.2026), Olympique Marcquois 3-1 (20.12.2025), and Boulogne 2-1 (15.12.2025). In their head-to-head match on October 17, 2025, Troyes triumphed over Bastia 1-0. Over a five-match span, Bastia averages 47.4% possession, 3.4 yellow cards, 16.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Troyes has higher possession at 56.4%, 1.8 yellow cards, 14.8 fouls, and 2.6 offsides.

Goal Scoring Trends

In Bastia's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals occurred once, and under 2.5 goals happened four times. For Troyes, over 2.5 goals occurred twice, and under 2.5 goals happened three times. The average goals per match for Bastia is 1.8, and for Troyes is 2.2. In terms of scoring: Bastia averages 0.8 goals, Troyes 1.6, and in terms of conceding: Bastia 1, Troyes 0.6. In the first half, both teams had only one instance of over 1.5 goals in their last five games. In the second half, Bastia had 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Troyes had 3 out of 5. Bastia most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 76-90 minute marks (both 40%), and concedes most often between the 31-45 minute mark (40%). Troyes distributes goals evenly across all intervals, with 20% in each, and concedes most often towards the end (76-90 minutes - 43%). Considering Bastia's low scoring and Troyes' strong defense, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.57 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Bastia averages 3.6 corners per game, while Troyes averages 5.6. Over five matches, the total corners over 9.5 occurred twice for Bastia and four times for Troyes. The line closest to the average total (9.2) is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 2.15, under 9.5 is at 1.63. In terms of corners, Bastia is favored with odds of 1.95. Statistics show both teams can create chances at the opponent's goal, but Troyes tends to take more corners. It makes sense to consider the option of over 9.5 corners, given both teams' recent activity.