Prediction for match Bayern — Mainz 05, 14.12.2025

Match Analysis: Bayern vs Mainz 05

Bayern and Mainz 05 will face off in the Bundesliga on December 14. The odds for a Bayern victory are 1.12, a draw is priced at 12.00, and a win for Mainz 05 is at 24.00. The probability distribution for the outcomes is as follows: Bayern - 87.72%, draw - 8.19%, Mainz 05 - 4.09%. According to these figures, bookmakers see little chance for Mainz 05, highlighting Bayern as the clear favorite. A convincing victory for Bayern seems the most likely outcome, considering the current odds and the 1X2 probability distribution.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Bayern has shown strong form: December 9 - Bayern vs Sporting Lisbon - 3-1, December 6 - Stuttgart vs Bayern - 0-5, December 3 - Union Berlin vs Bayern - 2-3. In the same period, Mainz 05 played as follows: December 11 - Lech Poznan vs Mainz 05 - 1-1, December 5 - Mainz 05 vs Borussia M - 0-1, November 30 - Freiburg vs Mainz 05 - 4-0. On average over the last 5 games, Bayern holds 64.4% possession, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 10.2 fouls, and is caught offside 2.4 times per match. Mainz 05 averages 42.8% possession, 2.6 yellows, 13.4 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last head-to-head on April 26, 2025, Bayern won 3-0.

Goal Scoring Trends

In their last five games, Bayern has a strong over-profile: all 5 matches went over 2.5 total goals, with an average total of 4.4 goals per game, and the team scoring 3 goals per match. Conversely, Mainz 05 exceeded 2.5 total goals in only 1 of 5 matches, with an average total of 2 goals per game, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.6. For Bayern, in 3 out of 5 games, the first half saw over 1.5 goals, and the second half went over 1.5 in 4 out of 5. Mainz 05 saw over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 of 5, and in the second half in 1 of 5. Bayern frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (36%), Mainz 05 also in this interval (29%). Bayern concedes most in the 0-15 and 76-90 minute intervals (27% each), while Mainz 05 concedes most in the 0-15, 16-30, and 46-60 minute intervals (33% each). Given Bayern's high scoring and Mainz 05's low scoring, with Mainz 05 rarely finding the net, a bet on "Both Teams to Score: No" at 1.80 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Bayern averages 4.6 corners per match, Mainz 05 - 5.6. In their last five games, Bayern exceeded 9.5 total corners once, Mainz 05 twice. The line closest to the combined average (10.2) is set at 10.5, with bets available for over 10.5 corners at 2.20 and under 10.5 at 1.63. In the corner market, Bayern is the favorite with odds of 1.06. Considering both teams' average corner activity, a bet on over 10.5 total corners seems justified, though recent games have not frequently exceeded this mark. Bayern and Mainz 05's average corner numbers are high enough to consider an over-profile in this component.