Prediction for match Birmingham — Leeds

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On February 15, 2026, Birmingham will face Leeds in the FA Cup. The 1X2 odds are as follows: Leeds win at 2.16, Birmingham win at 3.22, and a draw at 3.40. In terms of probabilities, Leeds is estimated at 43.36%, Birmingham at 29.09%, and a draw at 27.55%. Leeds is favored according to both the odds and probabilities, but the gap isn't significant, adding intrigue to the betting choice. The most balanced odds are for the total goals, with the line for over 2.5 goals at 1.78 and under 2.5 goals at 2.00.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Birmingham has an average possession of 57.6%, receives 1 yellow card, commits 9.8 fouls, and is caught offside 2.4 times per game. Over the same period, Leeds has 45.6% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 10.2 fouls, and is caught offside 2 times. Birmingham's last three matches: 10.02.2026 - Birmingham vs West Bromwich - 0-0, 07.02.2026 - Birmingham vs Leicester - 2-1, 31.01.2026 - Oxford United vs Birmingham - 0-2. Leeds played as follows: 10.02.2026 - Chelsea vs Leeds - 2-2, 06.02.2026 - Leeds vs Nottingham Forest - 3-1, 31.01.2026 - Leeds vs Arsenal - 0-4. In their last head-to-head on 01.01.2024, Leeds defeated Birmingham 3-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last 5 games, Birmingham has an average total goals of 1.8, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.4 per match. Leeds has an average total of 3, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6. For matches with over 2.5 goals, Birmingham has 1 out of 5, while Leeds has 3 out of 5. In terms of halves, Birmingham has only 1 out of 5 for over 1.5 goals in both first and second halves, while Leeds has 2 out of 5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. For goal intervals, Birmingham most frequently scores between 0-15, 31-45, and 61-75 minutes (each 33%), while Leeds scores between 16-30 minutes (43%). Birmingham most often concedes between 16-30, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (each 33%), while Leeds concedes between 61-75 minutes (38%). Given that Leeds consistently plays over 2.5 totals and Birmingham is solid defensively, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.78 seems logical: Leeds has three high-scoring matches out of five, and both teams have over 1.5 in the second half.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In their last 5 matches, Birmingham averages 8.4 corners per game, while Leeds averages 4.2. For matches with over 9.5 corners, Birmingham has 4 out of 5, and Leeds has 3 out of 5. For the corner total of 9.5, the odds are: over 9.5 at 1.72, under 9.5 at 2.05. In terms of corner outcomes, Leeds is favored with odds of 1.77. Given Birmingham's high average for corners and both teams regularly hitting the 9.5 total, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. Leeds might trail in corner counts, but the overall pace of play supports a high number of set pieces.