Prediction for match Casa Pia — Tondela

Match Analysis: Casa Pia vs Tondela

In the Primeira Liga on May 3, Casa Pia will face Tondela. The odds for a Casa Pia win are 2.32, for a draw 3.34, and for a Tondela win 3.32. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Casa Pia - 41.78%, draw - 29.02%, Tondela - 29.20%. For goal totals, the closest lines are: Over 2.5 goals at 2.22, Under 2.5 goals at 1.72. Both teams to score is priced at 1.85 for both outcomes. The Over 2.0 option is available at 1.58, and Over 2.25 at 1.94. For individual team totals: Casa Pia Over 1 is at 1.54, Tondela Over 1 is at 1.94.

Team Results and Statistics

Casa Pia lost their last three matches against Gil Vicente 1-2, Braga 0-1, and drew with Santa Clara 0-0. Tondela drew 2-2 with Sporting Lisbon, lost to Nacional 0-2, and to Porto 0-2 in their recent games. In their head-to-head match on December 21, 2025, Tondela lost to Casa Pia 1-2. Secondary statistics show Casa Pia averages 1.8 yellow cards, 16 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per match with 33.8% possession. Tondela averages 3 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, 1.2 offsides, and 47.4% possession.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a five-game series, Casa Pia has an average total of 2 goals, while Tondela has 3.4. Casa Pia scores 0.6 and concedes 1.4 goals on average, Tondela scores 0.8 and concedes 2.6. For Over 2.5 goals: Casa Pia has 2 out of 5 matches over, Tondela has 3 out of 5 over. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals occurred once for Casa Pia and three times for Tondela, while in the second half, it happened 2 out of 5 for Casa Pia and 4 out of 5 for Tondela. Casa Pia most often scores between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each), while Tondela scores between the 46th-60th, 61st-75th, and 76th-90th minutes (23% each). Casa Pia concedes most frequently from the 31st to the 45th minute (50%), and Tondela from the 76th to the 90th minute (57%). Overall, both teams are not highly prolific in attack, but Tondela's defense allows many goals, and both teams tend to have more productive second halves. Against this backdrop, betting on Over 2.0 goals at 1.58 seems justified - with three goals, the bet wins fully, and with two, it's a push.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Casa Pia averages 5 corners per match, Tondela 3.8. In the last 5 games, Casa Pia's total corners over 9.5 occurred 3 times, and Tondela's 4 times. The odds for total corners are: over 9.5 at 1.84, under 9.5 at 1.84. Casa Pia is favored in corners with odds of 1.74. Considering the average total corners for both teams (8.8) and the frequency of overs, a bet on over 9.5 corners is reasonable for risk-oriented players, while the main prediction suggests expecting a moderate number of corners - around 9-10 per match.