Prediction for match Ceara — Palmeiras

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on December 7, Ceara will face Palmeiras. The 1X2 odds are as follows: a win for Ceara is priced at 2.39, a draw at 3.25, and a victory for Palmeiras at 3.17. The probability percentages for these outcomes are distributed as follows: Ceara - 40.17%, draw - 29.54%, Palmeiras - 30.29%. The odds indicate a slight advantage for Ceara, but the gap between the teams is minimal. Goal total options: Over 2.5 at 2.22, Under 2.5 at 1.69, both teams to score: yes - 1.85, no - 1.85. These figures suggest that bookmakers do not expect a high-scoring game, and the likelihood of a draw is noticeably higher than usual.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Ceara lost to Flamengo 0-1 on December 4, drew 1-1 with Cruzeiro on November 30, and lost 0-3 to Mirassol on November 24. Palmeiras beat Atletico Mineiro 3-0 on December 4, lost 0-1 to Flamengo on November 29, and were defeated 2-3 by Gremio on November 26. Average ball possession over the last five matches: Ceara - 34%, Palmeiras - 50.6%. Yellow cards: Ceara - 2.6, Palmeiras - 2.8. Fouls per game: Ceara - 11, Palmeiras - 15. Offsides: Ceara - 2.8, Palmeiras - 1.8. In their last head-to-head meeting on August 10, Palmeiras won 2-1 against Ceara.

Total Statistics

In their last five-match series, Ceara averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with an overall average total of 2 goals per game. During the same period, Palmeiras averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with an average total of 1.8. Both teams had 2 out of 5 matches go over 2.5 goals, and 3 under. In the first half, only 1 out of 5 matches for Ceara had two or more goals, while Palmeiras had 2 out of 5. In the second half, Ceara had 2 out of 5 over 1.5 goals, and Palmeiras had 1 out of 5. Ceara most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (33%), and concedes in the same timeframe (50%). Palmeiras' goals are most frequent in three intervals: 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (33% each), and they concede most often between the 16th-30th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Overall, neither team shows a strong over-profile, with the total over 2.5 occurring only in 2 out of the last 5 matches for each. Average goals per game do not exceed 2, and Ceara's are significantly lower. This supports the choice of a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.69.

Corner Totals Analysis

Ceara averages 5.4 corners per match, while Palmeiras averages 5.2. In their last five matches, both teams had the total corners over 9.5 occur 3 times out of 5. The corner totals market closest to the sum of the averages is the line of 10: total corners over 10 is priced at 1.90, under 10 at 1.84. Ceara is the favorite in the corner outcome with odds of 1.91. Considering the average activity of both teams, it is logical to consider the total corners over 10 as one of the possible bets, and also to note the frequency of the total over 9.5 in the five-game series.