Prediction for match Charleroi — Mechelen, 04.12.2025

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

On December 4, a Belgian Cup match will take place between Charleroi and Mechelen. In the 1X2 market, Charleroi is the favorite with odds of 2.10, giving them a 44.58% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 3.46 (27.06%), while a Mechelen victory is at 3.30 (28.37%). The low odds for under 3.0 goals at 1.53 stand out, while over 2.5 goals is at 1.79, indicating cautious expectations from the bookmakers regarding goals. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.63, no at 2.14, reflecting the modest attacking potential of both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Charleroi averaged 47.8% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 2.2 offsides per game. Mechelen had slightly higher possession at 49.4%, 2.6 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 2 offsides. Charleroi's last three matches: 29.11.2025 - Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière - 0-0, 22.11.2025 - Brugge vs Charleroi - 1-0, 08.11.2025 - Charleroi vs Westerlo - 2-0. Mechelen: 28.11.2025 - Mechelen vs Standard Liège - 0-1, 23.11.2025 - Genk vs Mechelen - 0-1, 09.11.2025 - Mechelen vs Union Saint-Gilloise - 1-1. In their last head-to-head on 28.09.2025, Charleroi lost to Mechelen 0-2.

Goals in the Charleroi vs Mechelen Match

Both teams have shown low scoring trends in their last five games: Charleroi averages 1.6 goals per match, Mechelen 2.0. Both score 0.8 goals per game, with Charleroi conceding 0.8 and Mechelen 1.2. Only 1 out of 5 matches for both teams went over 2.5 goals, the rest were under. The same pattern is seen for over 1.5 goals in the first half: 1 out of 5 for both teams. In the second half, Charleroi has 1 out of 5 over 1.5, Mechelen 2 out of 5. Charleroi's most frequent scoring time is 46-60 minutes (43%), while they concede most often in the 31-45 minute interval (100%). Mechelen's scoring is evenly distributed but doesn't exceed 20% in any interval, while they concede most often in the 76-90 minute interval (40%). All this suggests a low likelihood of many goals, supported by the odds. Under 2.5 goals is at 1.99, and under 3.0 goals at 1.53, which seems like an optimal betting choice.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Charleroi averages 6.8 corners per match, Mechelen 3.8. For matches going over 9.5 corners, Charleroi has 4 out of 5 matches, Mechelen 2 out of 5. The line closest to their average total (10.6) is 9.5 corners. There are two outcomes: over 9.5 at 1.50, under 9.5 at 2.41. In the corner market, Charleroi is the favorite with odds of 1.56. Considering Charleroi's high activity in corners, betting on over 9.5 corners or a Charleroi win on corners seems logical.