Prediction for match Chaves — Pacos Ferreira

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In the Segunda Liga on December 7, Chaves will face Pacos Ferreira. The main odds for the outcomes are as follows: a win for Chaves is at 1.60, a draw is at 3.72, and a victory for Pacos Ferreira is offered at 5.58. In terms of probabilities, Chaves has a 58.25% chance, a draw is at 25.05%, and Pacos Ferreira has 16.70%. Based on these figures, Chaves appears to be the favorite, but the visitors can pose a challenge.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Chaves played as follows: November 30 against Torreense - 2:0, November 23 against Sporting Lisbon B - 0:0, November 16 against Leixoes - 1:0. During the same period, Pacos Ferreira played: December 1 against Figueirense - 1:1, November 9 against Maritimo - 0:2, November 3 against Leixoes - 3:1. In head-to-head encounters, the last game was on March 30, 2025, where Pacos Ferreira defeated Chaves 2-0. Additional statistics show that Chaves has an average possession of 52.5%, 4.5 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 2.5 offsides over 5 matches. Pacos Ferreira shows 48.5% possession, 2.5 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 3 offsides.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Chaves scores an average of 0.5 goals and concedes 1.5 over the last five games, with a total of 2 goals per match. Pacos Ferreira has higher averages: 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded, with a total of 3. Regarding the over/under 2.5 goals: Chaves had only 1 out of 5 matches go over, while Pacos Ferreira had 3 out of 5. In terms of halves, Chaves had only 1 out of 5 matches with two or more goals in both halves, while Pacos Ferreira had 2 out of 5 in each half. Chaves most frequently scores between the 46th-60th and 76th-90th minutes (50% each), and concedes most often between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (33% each). Pacos Ferreira most frequently scores at the end (76th-90th minutes - 33%) and concedes mainly between the 61st and 75th minutes (50%). Given these inputs, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.77 seems justified: Chaves has an under-profile with low scoring, while Pacos Ferreira, despite higher averages, lacks a stable over-profile across halves.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Chaves averages 6 corners per game, while Pacos Ferreira averages 2.5. In the last 5 matches, Chaves had 2 out of 5 games with a total of more than 9.5 corners, while Pacos Ferreira had 1 out of 5. The line for corner totals: over 9.5 is at 1.60, under 9.5 is at 2.17. In the corner outcome segment, Chaves is the favorite with odds of 1.23. Considering the average corner difference and Pacos Ferreira's low activity, it makes sense to consider an individual corner total for Chaves around 6 and an overall corner total near 9-10, but a bet on under 9.5 also makes sense with cautious play.