Prediction for match Corinthians — Bahia, 29.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Brazil's Serie A, Corinthians will face Bahia on January 28. Bookmakers have labeled Corinthians as the favorites, offering odds of 2.18 for their victory, 3.34 for a draw, and 3.52 for Bahia's win. The probabilities for these outcomes are distributed as follows: Corinthians - 44.01%, draw - 28.73%, Bahia - 27.26%. The betting line also includes odds for totals, both teams to score, and individual performances, allowing for an optimal prediction strategy. The range of odds on totals and outcomes provides room to consider multiple match scenarios. Paying attention to the statistical details of both teams can help make a more informed choice.

Team Results and Statistics

Corinthians, over their last five matches, have averaged 51.6% possession, recorded 2.4 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Meanwhile, Bahia holds possession 58.2% of the time, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 12.8 fouls, and is caught offside 1.6 times per match. In their last three games, Corinthians played as follows: January 25, 2026 - Velo Clube 0-1 Corinthians, January 22, 2026 - Santos 1-1 Corinthians, January 18, 2026 - Corinthians 1-1 São Paulo. Bahia's recent matches were: December 7, 2025 - Fluminense 2-0 Bahia, December 3, 2025 - Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife, November 28, 2025 - Juventude 1-1 Bahia. In their last head-to-head on August 17, 2025, Corinthians lost to Bahia 1-2. These stats reflect the balance of power and discipline of both teams in recent encounters.

Goals by Match Statistics

Over the last five matches, Corinthians have an average of 2.2 goals per game, scoring 1 and conceding 1.2. Bahia averages 2.4 goals, with 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Corinthians have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, while Bahia has seen it in 1 out of 5, indicating a prevalence of low-scoring games. In the first half, only 1 out of 5 Corinthians games ended with two or more goals, while Bahia had 3 out of 5. In the second half, Corinthians and Bahia had 1 and 2 occurrences respectively of over 1.5 goals. Corinthians most often scored between the 76th and 90th minutes (50%), while Bahia scored most between the 61st and 75th minutes (33%). Both teams conceded most frequently between the 16th and 30th minutes: Corinthians - 40%, Bahia - 50%. These data suggest a cautious style from both teams and a lack of a clear over-profile. Considering the average scoring, frequency of under 2.5 totals, and goal distribution by halves, betting on under 2.5 total goals at 1.76 seems the most logical choice for this match.

Corner Bets

Over the last five matches, Corinthians have averaged 3.6 corners, while Bahia have averaged 7.2. Corinthians have seen over 9.5 corners in 1 out of 5 matches, while Bahia have seen it in 3 out of 5. Considering the total corners, the combined average of both teams is 10.8, which is close to the line of 10.5. The line offers two totals: over 10.5 corners at odds of 2.19, under 10.5 at 1.61. Bahia is noticeably more active with corners, which could affect the dynamics in this aspect. Based on the statistics, betting on over 10.5 corners looks justified for risk-takers, while for the more cautious, under 10.5 at 1.61 is advisable. Overall, Bahia shows consistent activity in corners, while Corinthians tend to have fewer deliveries.