Prediction for match Derby County — Stoke City

Match Analysis: Derby County vs Stoke City

In the English Championship on April 6, Derby County will face Stoke City. Derby County's win is priced at 1.94, a draw at 3.42, and a Stoke City victory at 3.85. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Derby County - 48.28%, draw - 27.39%, Stoke City - 24.33%. These figures highlight Derby County as the favorite, although the gap with a draw is not too large. For total goals, over 2.5 is priced at 1.97, under 2.5 at 1.81. Both teams to score: yes - 1.79, no - 1.92. For individual totals: Derby County over 1.5 goals is priced at 2.01, Stoke City over 1.5 goals at 3.28. For corner outcomes, Derby County is favored with odds of 1.53.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County has an average possession of 47.2%, with 2.6 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Stoke City has 44% possession, also 2.6 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. Derby County's last three matches: April 3, 2026, Coventry 3-2 Derby County, March 21, 2026, Derby County 1-0 Birmingham, March 16, 2026, Portsmouth 0-1 Derby County. Stoke City's recent matches: April 3, 2026, Stoke City 2-0 Sheffield Wednesday, March 20, 2026, Preston North End 3-1 Stoke City, March 14, 2026, Stoke City 3-1 Watford. Their last head-to-head was on August 9, 2025: Stoke City 3-1 Derby County.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Match?

In their last five matches, Derby County averages 2.2 goals per game, while Stoke City averages 3.6. Derby County scores 1.2 and concedes 1.0, Stoke City scores 1.8 and concedes 1.8. For matches with over 2.5 goals: Derby County has 2 out of 5, Stoke City has 3 out of 5. For over 1.5 in the first half: both teams have 2 out of 5. In the second half: Derby County has only 1 out of 5 for over 1.5, while Stoke City has 4 out of 5. For goal intervals: Derby County most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (43%), Stoke City between the 46th and 60th and 76th and 90th minutes (31% each). For goals conceded: Derby County spreads percentages evenly across four intervals (25% each), while Stoke City concedes 40% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minutes. Overall, both teams show potential for a high-scoring game, especially in the second half, and the over 2.5 goals bet is supported by Stoke City's statistics and both teams' average scoring. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.97, making this bet attractive given the current numbers.

Corners in the Match

For average corners over 5 games: Derby County averages 3.6, Stoke City 6.2. The total is 9.8, close to the line of 9.5. In a five-game series, Derby County's over 9.5 corners occurred once, while Stoke City's occurred four times. For the 9.5 corners line, there are both options: over 9.5 is priced at 1.82, under 9.5 at 1.88. For corner outcomes, Derby County is favored with odds of 1.53. Considering Stoke City's activity with corners and the overall total, betting on over 9.5 corners seems logical, but Derby County's lower frequency adds caution.