Prediction for match Basel — Thun

Match Analysis: Basel vs Thun

In the Swiss Super League on May 2, Basel will face Thun. The odds for a win are almost equal: Thun at 2.42, Basel at 2.58, and a draw at 3.68. The probability distribution is as follows: Basel - 36.14%, draw - 25.34%, Thun - 38.53%. This is expected to be a match without a clear favorite, as both teams have nearly equal chances of success. The betting lines also offer options for total goals, both teams to score, double chance, and individual performances, highlighting the unpredictability and potential scoring nature of the game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Basel played as follows: 04/26/2026 Basel vs Sion 0-2, 04/18/2026 Thun vs Basel 3-1, 04/04/2026 Basel vs Young Boys 3-3. Thun's last three games: 04/25/2026 Thun vs Lugano 0-1, 04/18/2026 Thun vs Basel 3-1, 04/04/2026 Lugano vs Thun 1-0. In their previous head-to-head on 04/18/2026, Thun defeated Basel 3-1. Over a five-match span, Basel averages 51.6% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 9 fouls, and has 1.8 offsides. Thun averages 46.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 15 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. These figures indicate that Basel tends to control the ball more, while Thun plays more aggressively and commits more fouls.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Basel vs Thun Match

In the last five games, both teams have a high average total of goals: Basel with 3.6, Thun with 3. Both teams score an average of 1.8 goals per game, but Basel also concedes the same amount, while Thun concedes 1.2. For over 2.5 total goals, both teams have seen 3 out of 5 matches end with three or more goals. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for each team, while in the second half, Basel played 4 out of 5 over 1.5, Thun 2 out of 5. Basel most frequently scores between the 31st-45th and 61st-75th minutes (27% each), while Thun scores most often between the 46th-60th minute (27%). Basel concedes evenly across four intervals at 22% each, while Thun concedes 25% in the same intervals. All this points to a tendency for high-scoring matches, especially in the second half. Given the high average scoring and frequent over 2.5 outcomes, a bet on over 3.0 total goals at 1.52 odds seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Over a five-match span, Basel averages 4.6 corners, Thun 6.4. For over 9.5 corners, Basel has 2 out of 5, Thun 4 out of 5. Combined, the teams average 11 corners per match, which is above the standard line. There is a line for 9.5 total corners, but without odds for both sides, the nearest with odds is over 10.5. However, based on statistics, it is reasonable to expect at least 10-11 corners in this match. Thun also tends to earn more corners, possibly due to their playing style and frequent attacking actions. A bet on over 10.5 total corners looks justified by current metrics, and it is also worth considering Thun's individual total corners.