Prediction for match St. Pauli — Hamburger

Match Analysis: St. Pauli vs Hamburger

On January 23, St. Pauli will face Hamburger in the Bundesliga. The odds for a St. Pauli victory are 2.63, while Hamburger's win is at 3.04, and a draw is at 3.25. In terms of probability: St. Pauli - 37.39%, draw - 30.26%, Hamburger - 32.35%. The odds and probabilities suggest that St. Pauli has a slight edge, but Hamburger is not far behind in terms of chances. The match promises to be interesting in terms of balance of power, considering the close odds and percentages.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, St. Pauli has an average possession of 40.4%, receives 1.4 yellow cards, commits 8.2 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times per game. During the same period, Hamburger holds possession 46.6% of the time, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 10.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.2 times. St. Pauli's last three matches: January 17, 2026, Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli 3-2, January 14, 2026, Wolfsburg vs St. Pauli 2-1, December 21, 2025, Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli 0-0. Hamburger played as follows: January 17, 2026, Hamburger vs Borussia M 0-0, January 10, 2026, Freiburg vs Hamburger 2-1, December 20, 2025, Hamburger vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1. In their last head-to-head on August 29, 2025, Hamburger lost to St. Pauli 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In St. Pauli's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals occurred 3 times, and under 2 times. For Hamburger, it was similar: 3 out of 5 on over 2.5, 2 on under. For first-half totals, St. Pauli had only 1 out of 5 over 1.5, and Hamburger had 2 out of 5. In the second half, both teams recorded 3 out of 5 over 1.5. The average number of goals in St. Pauli's matches is 2.6, and for Hamburger, it's 3. Both clubs score 1.2 goals per game on average, with St. Pauli conceding 1.4 and Hamburger 1.8. St. Pauli most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (38%), while Hamburger scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (40%). St. Pauli most often concedes between the 61st and 75th minutes (60%), and Hamburger between the 76th and 90th minutes (50%). These combined statistics suggest a tendency for both teams to play high-scoring football, especially in the second half. The average totals and frequency of overs support a bet on over 2.5 goals, which is at 2.32. This choice seems justified, considering the regular occurrence of overs and the average goal figures above 2.5 for both sides.

Corner Totals Analysis

St. Pauli averages 4.4 corners per match, while Hamburger averages 3.6. In the last 5 games, St. Pauli recorded a total over 9.5 corners 4 times, Hamburger once. Among the corner totals, the line closest to the sum of the average figures (8) is 8.5, for which both outcomes are available: over 8.5 corners - 1.54, under 8.5 - 2.25. In the corner outcome, St. Pauli is the favorite with odds of 1.71. Statistically, St. Pauli is more often involved in matches with a high number of corners, which may be related to their playing style and attacking activity, especially in the second half. The optimal bet on corners seems to be the over 8.5 option, considering St. Pauli's frequency of overs and the overall trend in these indicators.