Prediction for match Fiorentina — Jagiellonia

Match Analysis: Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia

In the Conference League on February 26th, Fiorentina will face Jagiellonia. The odds clearly favor the Italian side: a win for Fiorentina is at 1.54, a draw at 4.47, and a win for Jagiellonia at 6.34. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: 63% for a Fiorentina win, 21.7% for a draw, and 15.3% for a Jagiellonia win. This setup confirms Fiorentina's status as the favorite, especially considering the lower odds for their victory. Additionally, the total goals market suggests a high-scoring game with the line for over 2.5 goals at 1.74 and under 2.5 at 2.19.

Team Results and Statistics

Fiorentina's last three matches ended as follows: February 23, 2026 - Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa, February 19, 2026 - Jagiellonia 0-3 Fiorentina, February 14, 2026 - Como 1-2 Fiorentina. Jagiellonia's results in the same period were: February 22, 2026 - Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom, February 19, 2026 - Jagiellonia 0-3 Fiorentina, February 14, 2026 - Cracovia 0-0 Jagiellonia. In their head-to-head match on February 19, Fiorentina comfortably defeated Jagiellonia 3-0. Additional stats from the last five matches show Fiorentina with an average possession of 44%, yellow cards at 2.2, fouls at 10.2, and offsides at 1.4. Jagiellonia, on the other hand, had possession at 58.4%, yellow cards at 2.6, fouls at 16.4, and offsides at 2. These figures indicate that Jagiellonia plays with the ball more but also commits more fouls.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring games: Fiorentina's matches went over 2.5 goals 4 times out of 5, while Jagiellonia's did so 3 times. The average number of goals in matches for both teams is the same - 2.8. Fiorentina scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1, while Jagiellonia scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2. In terms of timing, Fiorentina's second half saw over 1.5 goals 4 times out of 5, while the first half never did. For Jagiellonia, the second half also saw over 1.5 goals 4 times, with the first half seeing it once. This indicates that most of the scoring happens in the second half. Goal intervals show Fiorentina most frequently scoring between 46-60 minutes (50%), while Jagiellonia scores most often between 76-90 minutes (50%). Both teams concede most frequently between 46-60 minutes (38%). Given these statistics, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.74 seems justified: both teams regularly have high-scoring games, especially in the second half, and have stable scoring and conceding patterns.

Corner Bets

The average number of corners over five matches for Fiorentina is 4.6, and for Jagiellonia, it's 5.4, totaling 10. In the last five games, the total corners exceeded 9.5 only once for Fiorentina and three times for Jagiellonia. Among the available total corners lines, 9.5 fits closest to the average, with over 9.5 corners at 1.97 and under 9.5 at 1.73. Fiorentina is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.33. Based on the statistics, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems intriguing, especially considering Jagiellonia's activity in this aspect. Additionally, Jagiellonia's higher average corners can impact the total in the match.