Prediction for match Mainz 05 — St. Pauli, 21.12.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The Bundesliga continues to deliver exciting clashes, and the meeting between Mainz 05 and St. Pauli promises to be eventful. The odds for the outcome are as follows: Mainz 05 win is at 2.01, a draw is at 3.53, and St. Pauli win is at 4.26. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Mainz 05 - 48.99%, draw - 27.90%, St. Pauli - 23.11%. Mainz 05 is favored by the bookmakers, but the gap isn't significant, hinting at some intrigue in the match. For goal totals, the line offers over 2.0 at 1.57, and both teams to score: yes - 1.89, no - 1.83.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Mainz 05 has an average possession of 34.6%, with 2 yellow cards per game, 10.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. St. Pauli, over the same period, shows 41.8% possession, 1.4 yellows, 7.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per match. Recent matches for Mainz 05: 18.12.2025 - Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor - 2-0, 14.12.2025 - Bayern vs Mainz 05 - 2-2, 11.12.2025 - Lech Poznań vs Mainz 05 - 1-1. For St. Pauli: 13.12.2025 - St. Pauli vs Heidenheim - 2-1, 06.12.2025 - Köln vs St. Pauli - 1-1, 02.12.2025 - Borussia M vs St. Pauli - 1-2. In their head-to-head on 22.02.2025, Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli ended 2-0 in favor of Mainz 05.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have a similar average total of 2.6 goals over a stretch of 5 matches, indicating a tendency for high-scoring games. Mainz 05 scores an average of 1 goal per match, conceding 1.6, while St. Pauli scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4. For over 2.5 goals: Mainz 05 has 2 out of 5, St. Pauli has 3 out of 5. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals were recorded for Mainz 05 3 times out of 5, for St. Pauli - 1 out of 5. Second halves are more productive for St. Pauli - 4 out of 5 for over 1.5, for Mainz 05 - 2 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals, Mainz 05 is most likely to score between the 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minute marks - with 22% each. St. Pauli most frequently scores between 46-60 minutes - 43%. Mainz 05 concedes evenly in the 16-75 minute intervals - 25% for each of the four segments. St. Pauli concedes more often at the end of the first and second halves - 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Overall, both teams show a tendency to score after the break, and the statistics for totals lean more towards the over than the under. With these inputs, it's logical to consider a bet on over 2.0 goals.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Mainz 05 averages 4 corners per game, St. Pauli - 3.6. For over 9.5 corners: Mainz 05 - 1 out of 5, St. Pauli - 3 out of 5. The combined average corners of both teams is 7.6, which is close to the 7.5-8.5 line. For total corners, options are: over 8.5 - 1.60, under 8.5 - 2.25. In the corners outcome, Mainz 05 is the favorite with odds of 1.53. Based on the average corner productivity and not the highest frequency of high totals for Mainz 05, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified, but not without some risk. St. Pauli often plays to the over on corners, which could add some dynamics to this metric.