Prediction for match Mainz 05 — Freiburg

Match Analysis: Mainz 05 vs Freiburg

In the Bundesliga clash on April 12, Mainz 05 will take on Freiburg. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Mainz 05 is priced at 2.37, a draw at 3.18, and a victory for Freiburg at 3.60. Based on the probabilities, which are assessed at 41.60% for Mainz 05, 31.01% for a draw, and 27.39% for Freiburg, Mainz 05 holds a slight edge. The betting line also offers options for totals and both teams to score, with "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at 1.64 and "No" at 2.15. The goal total options are over 2.5 at 1.93 and under at 2.01. The overall odds suggest that bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, but a draw is not out of the question.

Team Recent Matches Review

Mainz 05 has shown a solid form in their last five matches: a 2-0 win over Strasbourg (09.04.2026), a 2-1 victory against Eintracht Frankfurt (22.03.2026), and a 2-0 triumph over Sigma Olomouc (19.03.2026). Freiburg, during the same period, defeated Celta 3-0 (09.04.2026), lost to Bayern 2-3 (04.04.2026), and beat St. Pauli 2-1 (22.03.2026). In their last head-to-head meeting on November 30, 2025, Freiburg thrashed Mainz 05 with a 4-0 scoreline. Additional stats over the 5 matches show Mainz 05 with an average possession of 38.2%, committing 10.8 fouls, 2.6 offsides, and receiving 1.2 yellow cards per game. Freiburg averages 50.2% possession, 8.4 fouls, 2.4 offsides, and 1.4 yellow cards per game.

How Many Goals in Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Match

Both teams look quite intriguing in terms of scoring. Mainz 05 has averaged 2 goals per game over their last five matches, conceding just 0.4, with a total of 2.4 goals in matches involving them. Freiburg's averages are higher: 2.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, and a total of 3.6. In Mainz 05's last 5 matches, the total over 2.5 was achieved twice, and under three times. For Freiburg, it's the opposite: 4 out of 5 matches went over 2.5, only once under. By halves, Mainz 05 had a total over 1.5 in the first half three times and only once in the second. Freiburg had over 1.5 in the second half three times, twice in the first. Interval-wise, Mainz 05 most frequently scores in the 0-15 (29%), 16-30 (29%), and 76-90 (29%) minutes. They concede most often in the first 15 minutes (40%). Freiburg's highest scoring intervals are 16-30 (27%) and 46-60 (27%), conceding mainly in the final 76-90 minutes (71%). Considering both teams' average goals exceed 2, and Freiburg had 4 out of 5 high-scoring games, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.93 seems reasonable.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Mainz 05 averages 5 corners per game, Freiburg 3.8. In the last 5 matches, Mainz 05 had over 9.5 corners three times, Freiburg once. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to their combined average (8.8) is 8.5, with odds of 1.52 for over 8.5 and under also 1.52. For corners, Mainz 05 is the favorite with odds of 1.50. Considering neither team frequently exceeds 10 corners, betting on over 8.5 corners seems justified for this match. One might also consider betting on Mainz 05 to win on corners, given their consistency in this aspect.