Prediction for match Gimnasia M. — Independiente

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Argentine Professional League match between Gimnasia M. and Independiente, bookmakers offer the following odds for the main outcomes: a win for Independiente is at 2.29, a draw is at 2.89, and a victory for Gimnasia M. is at 3.51. In terms of probabilities: Independiente has a 40.90% chance, a draw is at 32.41%, and Gimnasia M. is at 26.69%. The most likely outcome seems to be a win for Independiente, although a draw is also highly rated. However, the difference between the favorite and the other options is not so large as to suggest a clear advantage.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Gimnasia M. hasn't been in the best form: they lost to Gimnasia (0-1), Talleres Córdoba (1-2), and won against Instituto Córdoba (1-0). Independiente, in their last three matches, lost to Independiente Rivadavia (2-3), defeated Lanús (2-0), and Platense (1-0). In their head-to-head encounter on 29.06.2025, Independiente was stronger, winning against Gimnasia M. with a score of 2-1. In additional metrics: Gimnasia M. had an average possession of 48.4% over a five-match series, recorded 1.4 yellow cards, committed 11 fouls, and had 1.6 offsides per game. Independiente had 53% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 3.4 offsides.

Total Statistics

In terms of scoring, Gimnasia M. averages 2 goals per match, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.6. Independiente's figures are higher: 2.4 goals on average, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1. Over the last 5 games, Gimnasia M. had over 2.5 goals 2 times, under 3, and Independiente had over once and under 4 times. By halves: in the first half, Gimnasia M. had 2 out of 5 over 1.5, Independiente 1 out of 5. In the second half, Gimnasia M. had only 1 out of 5 over 1.5, Independiente 2 out of 5. By goal intervals: Gimnasia M. most often scores between 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), Independiente in intervals 61-75 and 76-90 (29% each). In terms of goals conceded: Gimnasia M. is most vulnerable between 16-30, 31-45, and 61-75 minutes (33% each), Independiente in intervals 31-45 and 46-60 (40% each). Considering Gimnasia M.'s low scoring and frequent under 2.5 totals, a bet on under 2.25 at 1.50 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For average corners, Gimnasia M. earns 3.4 per game, Independiente 4.6. In a five-match series, Gimnasia M. had over 9.5 corners 2 times, Independiente once. Among available corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners is at 1.78, under 8.5 at 1.90. For corner outcomes, Independiente is the favorite with odds of 2.02. Considering both teams' average activity in corner deliveries, a total of around 8-9 corners seems most likely.