Prediction for match Gremio — Santos

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

On May 23rd, Gremio will face Santos in Brazil's Serie A. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: Gremio's victory is priced at 2.17, a draw at 3.31, and a win for Santos at 3.58. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Gremio 44.21%, draw 28.99%, Santos 26.80%. These figures highlight Gremio as the favorite, but the gap isn't significant, adding intrigue to the match. Bookmakers' expectations and probabilities suggest a moderate advantage for Gremio, with a draw also being a well-considered outcome.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Gremio defeated Palestino 2-0 (21.05.2026), drew 1-1 with Bahia (17.05.2026), and confidently beat Confiança 3-0 (14.05.2026). In their last three encounters, Santos drew 2-2 with San Lorenzo (20.05.2026), lost 0-3 to Coritiba (17.05.2026), and won 2-0 against Coritiba (13.05.2026). Looking at the average stats over five matches, Gremio has 47.2% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Santos averages 55% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on October 2, 2025, the teams drew 1-1 at Santos' ground. Overall, in terms of additional stats, the teams are quite close, though Santos tends to control the ball more, and Gremio is slightly more disciplined in defense.

How Many Goals in Gremio vs Santos Match

Over the last five games, Gremio has an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Santos has 2.6. Gremio scores 1.8 and concedes 0.4, while Santos scores 1.4 and concedes 1.2. Both teams have a balanced over/under 2.5 record: 2 out of 5 games went over, 3 under. For halves, Gremio has 0 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half, but 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the second. Santos has 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and only 1 out of 5 in the second. In terms of goal intervals, Gremio most frequently scores and concedes between 61-75 minutes (67% and 50% respectively), while Santos scores in two intervals: 31-45 and 76-90 (40% each). Overall, both teams show moderate scoring ability, but Gremio is reliable in defense, and Santos isn't always stable in attack. The average goal stats and the balance of over/under 2.5 suggest no clear over-profile, but a low-scoring match isn't guaranteed either. The optimal bet appears to be under 2.5 goals at 1.69, as both teams often play under, and Gremio is known for its solid defense.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In terms of average corners over five matches, Gremio has 1.8, while Santos has 3.8. For the over 9.5 corners market, Gremio has 1 out of 5, Santos 2 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.72, under 9.5 is 1.98. In terms of corner outcomes, Gremio is the favorite with odds of 1.78. The combined average corner stats for both teams don't reach classic high totals, so it makes sense to consider under 9.5 corners. It's also worth noting that Gremio rarely takes many corners, while Santos does slightly more often but not consistently. Overall, the match doesn't promise to be highly productive in terms of corners.