Prediction for match Lazio — Milan, 04.12.2025

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcome

In the Coppa Italia on December 4, 2025, Lazio will face Milan. According to 1X2 odds, Milan is favored with odds of 2.29, while both Lazio and a draw are rated at 3.40. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Milan win - 42.61%, draw - 28.70%, Lazio win - 28.70%. This setup reflects Milan's advantage, but Lazio is not a clear underdog by the numbers. The match promises to be tense, considering the close percentages for a draw and a Lazio win.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Lazio had 55.6% ball possession, averaged 1.4 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 0.4 offsides. Over the same period, Milan had 44.2% possession, averaged 2 yellow cards, 9.8 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Lazio's last three matches were: 29.11.2025 - Milan vs. Lazio - 1-0, 23.11.2025 - Lazio vs. Lecce - 2-0, 09.11.2025 - Inter vs. Lazio - 2-0. Milan's last three matches: 29.11.2025 - Milan vs. Lazio - 1-0, 23.11.2025 - Inter vs. Milan - 0-1, 08.11.2025 - Parma vs. Milan - 2-2. The most recent head-to-head was on November 29, 2025, where Milan narrowly won 1-0.

Goals Totals Statistics

In a series of five matches, Lazio's average total goals were 1.4, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.6 per game. Milan's average total was 1.8, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6. In their five-match series, Lazio had no games exceeding a total of 2.5 goals, with all five being under. Milan had only one game over 2.5 goals, with four under. By halves, Lazio never exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half and only once in the second half out of five matches. Milan had over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and once in the second half. Lazio most frequently scores between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (29% each), while Milan scores most often between the 31st-45th minutes (50%). Milan concedes mostly in the first 15 minutes (40%). This profile of both teams with low scoring, consistent unders on totals, and no distinct overtime patterns leads to a logical bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.71.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average over the last five matches, Lazio takes 4.2 corners per game, while Milan takes 3.2. For totals over 9.5 corners, Lazio has two out of five, and Milan has three out of five. The line closest to the combined average (7.4) is over 7.5 corners at 1.27 and under 7.5 at 3.14. There's also a line for over 8.5 corners at 1.52 and under 8.5 at 2.30. The option for over 8.5 corners seems slightly more balanced in terms of odds. In the corners market, Milan is favored with odds of 2.11. Based on the teams' average activity, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified, but there are no sharp spikes in corners, so a cautious approach to this market is warranted.