Prediction for match Lazio — Atalanta

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the Coppa Italia on March 4, 2026, Lazio will face Atalanta. According to the 1X2 odds, Atalanta is the favorite with odds of 2.28 for a win, a draw is priced at 3.44, and a Lazio victory is at 3.50. The probability distribution for a win is: Lazio - 28.15%, draw - 28.64%, Atalanta - 43.21%. This reflects Atalanta's advantage in current form and scoring ability. For the both teams to score market: yes is 1.79, no is 1.94, indicating potential attacking activity from both teams, with a slight edge towards caution.

Team Results and Statistics

Lazio's last five matches show an average possession of 50.4%, receiving 1.6 yellow cards, committing 8.6 fouls, and recording 1.4 offsides per game. Atalanta averages 56.4% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. Lazio's last three matches were: 01.03.2026 - Torino 2-0 Lazio, 21.02.2026 - Cagliari 0-0 Lazio, 14.02.2026 - Lazio 0-2 Atalanta. Atalanta's last three matches: 01.03.2026 - Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta, 25.02.2026 - Atalanta 4-1 Borussia Dortmund, 22.02.2026 - Atalanta 2-1 Napoli. In their last head-to-head on 14.02.2026, Lazio lost to Atalanta 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Lazio has an average total of 2 goals per match, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4. Atalanta's average total is 3, with 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Lazio has seen over 2.5 goals in only 1 of 5 matches, while Atalanta has seen it in 3 of 5. In the first half, Lazio has never seen more than 1.5 goals, while Atalanta has seen it twice. In the second half, Lazio has seen over 1.5 goals in only 1 of 5, while Atalanta has seen it in 3 of 5. Lazio most frequently scores in the 16-30 and 46-60 minute intervals (40%), and concedes most often from 46 to 60 minutes (60%). Atalanta's goals are distributed 20% each across four intervals: 0-15, 31-45, 61-75, 76-90, while conceded goals are evenly spread from 16 to 90 minutes (20% each). Combined, both teams' goal and total patterns suggest that a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.52 looks logical: Atalanta has a strong attacking profile, Lazio's defense is not particularly reliable, and the visitors' recent matches average exactly 3 goals. However, there is a risk of a low-scoring game from Lazio, but Atalanta's attacking prowess may offset this.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Lazio averages 4.6 corners per match, Atalanta - 5.2. Over the last five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred only once for each team. According to the odds, over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.97, under 9.5 at 1.75. Lazio is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 2.08. Overall, neither team shows particularly high corner statistics, and a bet on under 9.5 corners seems justified given the current trend. It's also worth noting that both Lazio's and Atalanta's average corner figures are close to 10, which supports the chosen line. In recent matches, both teams rarely exceed this mark, further supporting a cautious approach to corner bets.