Prediction for match Lille — Marseille, 05.12.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On December 5th in Ligue 1, Lille faces Marseille. According to the 1X2 odds, the bookmakers see no clear favorite: Lille's win is at 2.69, Marseille's at 2.71, and a draw is at 3.64. Looking at the probability distribution, Lille has 36.61%, Marseille 36.34%, and a draw 27.05%. This balance suggests a high likelihood of an open game with chances for both teams, which is also supported by recent scoring statistics. Additionally, the odds for over 2.5 goals are at 1.78, and for both teams to score at 1.55, indicating a trend towards a goal-rich encounter.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Lille achieved the following results: November 30 - Le Havre 0-1 Lille, November 27 - Lille 4-0 Dinamo Zagreb, November 23 - Lille 4-2 Paris FC. During the same period, Marseille played as follows: November 29 - Marseille 2-2 Toulouse, November 25 - Marseille 2-1 Newcastle, November 21 - Nice 1-5 Marseille. On average over five matches, Lille had 58.4% possession, committed 13.8 fouls, was caught offside 1.4 times, and received 2.6 yellow cards. Marseille had 59.8% possession, committed 12 fouls, was offside 1.2 times, and received 2.2 yellow cards. In their last head-to-head on May 4, 2025, Lille and Marseille drew 1-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams stand out in terms of scoring: Lille averages 1.8 goals per five-match stretch, while Marseille averages 2.4. Both teams concede an average of 1 goal per game. Lille's matches average 2.8 goals, and Marseille's 3.4. Over the last five games, Lille's matches went over 2.5 goals twice, while Marseille's did four times. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for both teams, and in the second half, twice for Lille and three times for Marseille. The most frequent goal-scoring intervals: for Lille - 76-90 minutes (45%), for Marseille - 61-75 minutes (38%). Lille most often concedes late (76-90, 67%), while Marseille concedes early (0-15, 40%). These stats confirm that both teams can create chances, especially in the second half. Considering the high scoring rate, frequent over 2.5 goals in Marseille's matches, and Lille's consistent attacking performance, betting on both teams to score at 1.55 seems justified.

Analysis of Total Corners

Lille averages 4.6 corners per game, and Marseille 7.6, totaling 12.2. In a five-match span, over 9.5 corners occurred once for Lille and three times for Marseille. For the total corners line at 9.5, the odds are 1.95 for over 9.5 and 1.76 for under 9.5. Lille is favored in corner outcomes at 1.67. Given the high average number of corners, betting on over 9.5 corners seems logical for this matchup, especially considering both teams' attacking style and Marseille's frequent corner kicks.