Prediction for match Liverpool — Burnley, 17.01.2026

Match Analysis: Liverpool vs Burnley

In the English Premier League on January 17, Liverpool will face Burnley. The odds for Liverpool to win are 1.27, a draw is at 6.60, and a Burnley victory is valued at 12.90. In terms of probability, Liverpool has a 77.47% chance of winning, a draw is at 14.91%, and Burnley has 7.63%. This setup highlights Liverpool's significant advantage in all key areas, which is also confirmed by the results of previous encounters between these teams. In their last head-to-head, Liverpool defeated Burnley 1-0, and overall, Liverpool has consistently come out on top in their last five meetings. The bookmakers' expectations and statistics indicate a high likelihood of success for Liverpool, but to find the best bet, it's important to explore other markets as well.

Team Results and Statistics

Liverpool showed solid results in their last three matches: on January 12, they defeated Barnsley 4-1, drew 0-0 with Arsenal on January 8, and recorded a 2-2 draw with Fulham on January 4. Burnley, in their last three encounters, secured a big win over Millwall 5-1 (January 10), then drew 2-2 with Manchester United (January 7), and lost to Brighton 0-2 (January 3). Over a five-match series, Liverpool averages 64.2% possession, commits 6.8 fouls, receives 0.8 yellow cards, and records 2.4 offsides per game. Burnley averages 49.2% possession, 10.2 fouls, 2.2 yellow cards, and 1.6 offsides. The last head-to-head was on September 14, 2025, and ended with a 1-0 victory for Liverpool at Burnley's ground. These figures underline the difference in style and discipline between the teams, as well as Liverpool's superior ball control.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, both teams have played over 2.5 goals three times and under twice. Liverpool's average goals per game are 2.4, while Burnley's are 3.2. Both teams score an average of 1.6 goals per match, but Burnley concedes an average of 1.6, and Liverpool 0.8. In terms of halves, both teams have gone over 1.5 goals twice in the first and second halves in five games. Liverpool most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (38% each), while Burnley spreads its goals across four intervals: 0-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 61-75 minutes (20% each). Liverpool is vulnerable in the 46-60 minute interval (50%), and Burnley most often concedes early (0-15 - 33%), after the break (46-60 - 33%), and at the end (76-90 - 33%). Considering both teams regularly score and concede, and the average goal figures are quite high, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.62 seems logical. This option is supported by the frequency of over 2.5 goals (3 out of 5 for both teams), as well as the distribution of goals by halves and intervals.

Corners in the Match

Over a five-match series, Liverpool averages 6.6 corners, and Burnley 4. In four of Liverpool's last five matches, they went over 9.5 corners, while Burnley did so once. In the corners market, the total closest to the average sum is 10.5: over 10.5 is at 1.96, under is at 1.75. Liverpool is at 1.11 to win on corners. Given Liverpool's flank activity and frequent crosses, it's logical to expect the team to attack and earn corners again. Burnley averages fewer corners but might increase activity against a strong opponent. The optimal bet based on statistics seems to be over 10.5 corners, considering the combined average of both teams is 10.6 per game.