Prediction for match Luxembourg — Malta

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

On 31.03.2026, Luxembourg faces Malta in the Nations League. According to the 1X2 odds, Luxembourg is the clear favorite: their win is priced at 1.71, a draw at 3.81, and a Malta win at 5.99. The probabilities for a win are distributed as follows: Luxembourg - 57.66%, draw - 25.88%, Malta - 16.46%. This setup confirms Luxembourg as the favorite, with Malta as the underdog.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Luxembourg has an average possession of 44.4%, receives 2.8 yellow cards, commits 12.2 fouls, and is caught offside 0.8 times per game. Malta's averages are: 41% possession, 3 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. Luxembourg's last three matches: 26.03.2026 Malta - Luxembourg 0-2, 17.11.2025 Northern Ireland - Luxembourg 1-0, 14.11.2025 Luxembourg - Germany 0-2. Malta's recent games: 26.03.2026 Malta - Luxembourg 0-2, 17.11.2025 Malta - Poland 2-3, 14.11.2025 Finland - Malta 0-1. In their last head-to-head on 26.03.2026, Malta lost to Luxembourg 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Luxembourg's last five games, over 2.5 goals occurred once, and under 2.5 goals four times. For Malta, over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 games, and under in 3. The average goals per game for Luxembourg is 2.2, and for Malta, it's 2.8. Luxembourg scores an average of 0.4 goals and concedes 1.8, while Malta scores 0.8 and concedes 2. Over 1.5 goals in the first half occurred once for each team, while over 1.5 goals in the second half occurred in 4 out of 5 games for both. Luxembourg most frequently scores and concedes between the 46th and 60th minutes (43% and 50%), while Malta scores in three different intervals: 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 (33% each), and concedes most often late in the game (76-90, 45%). Given that both teams are not highly prolific in scoring, and over 2.5 goals is rare, betting on under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Luxembourg averages 2.6 corners over five matches, while Malta averages 1.8. For over 9.5 corners, Luxembourg had no occurrences, and Malta had 2 out of 5. The line offers a total of 4.5 corners: over 4.5 is priced at 1.01, under 4.5 at 8.50, but these figures are far from the averages of both teams. There's also a total of 9.5, but both teams' averages are below this mark. Given the low averages for corners and the absence of over 9.5 for Luxembourg, it makes sense to consider lower corner options. A high number of corners is unlikely in this match, as both teams are not inclined to frequent corner kicks.