Prediction for match Manchester City — Newcastle, 04.02.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

Manchester City will face Newcastle in the League Cup on February 4. The odds for a Manchester City win are 1.83, a draw is at 4.14, and a Newcastle victory is priced at 4.39. In terms of probabilities: Manchester City has a 53.80% chance, a draw is 23.78%, and Newcastle is at 22.43%. Manchester City stands out as the favorite according to the odds and probabilities, but Newcastle is capable of putting up a fight. The betting line also includes options for totals and both teams to score, which allows for interesting bets in this matchup.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Manchester City played as follows: February 2 - Tottenham vs Manchester City - 2-2, January 28 - Manchester City vs Galatasaray - 2-0, January 24 - Manchester City vs Wolverhampton - 2-0. During the same period, Newcastle recorded these results: January 31 - Liverpool vs Newcastle - 4-1, January 28 - PSG vs Newcastle - 1-1, January 25 - Newcastle vs Aston Villa - 0-2. Looking at the averages over five matches, Manchester City maintains 61.8% possession, receives 2 yellow cards, commits 10.4 fouls, and has 1 offside per game. Newcastle's figures are: 51.8% possession, 1.8 yellows, 6.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on January 13, Newcastle lost to Manchester City 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five matches, Manchester City's average total goals per game is 2.8, while Newcastle's is 2.4. Manchester City scores and concedes 1.4 goals each, Newcastle scores 1 and concedes 1.4. For over 2.5 goals: both teams have 2 out of 5 over, 3 under. By halves, Manchester City has 4 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Newcastle has 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and only 1 out of 5 in the second. Manchester City most frequently scores between the 16th and 30th minutes (27%), while Newcastle scores in the first 15 minutes (33%). For goals conceded, Manchester City has three intervals at 33%: 0-15, 31-45, and 46-60, while Newcastle's 50% falls in the 31-45 minute range. Considering both teams' average scoring, 2 out of 5 over 2.5 totals, and first-half activity, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.66 seems logical for this match.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Manchester City averages 5.2 corners per match, Newcastle 5.6. For over 9.5 corners: Manchester City has 1 out of 5, Newcastle 3 out of 5. Among the corner totals, the line closest to the combined average (10.8) is 10.5: over 10.5 corners - 2.10, under 10.5 - 1.62. In terms of corner outcomes, Manchester City is the favorite with odds of 1.66. Given both teams' activity in delivering corners, considering a bet on over 10.5 corners and a Manchester City win in this category is logical.