Prediction for match Metz — Nantes

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match

In Ligue 1 on April 5, Metz will face Nantes. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Metz is valued at 3.07, a draw at 3.38, and a win for Nantes at 2.54. The probability distribution for these outcomes is as follows: Metz - 32.08%, draw - 29.14%, Nantes - 38.78%. Nantes appears to be the preferred choice by bookmakers based on recent performances. For total goals, the under 2.5 line is priced at 1.75, while both teams to score: yes is 1.85, no is 1.87. Individual team totals: Metz over 1 - 1.81, Nantes over 1 - 1.65. Double chance options: 1X - 1.58, X2 - 1.43, 12 - 1.37.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Metz averages 45.8% possession, 2 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Nantes averages 39% possession, 2.2 yellows, 13.8 fouls, and 1 offside. Metz's last three matches: 22.03.2026 - Rennes vs Metz - 0-0, 15.03.2026 - Metz vs Toulouse - 3-4, 08.03.2026 - Lens vs Metz - 3-0. Nantes' last three matches: 22.03.2026 - Nantes vs Strasbourg - 2-3, 07.03.2026 - Nantes vs Angers - 0-1, 01.03.2026 - Lille vs Nantes - 1-0. The last head-to-head on 02.11.2025 ended with Nantes 0-2 Metz.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, Metz had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5, while Nantes had 2 out of 5. In the first half, Metz had over 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5, Nantes in 3 out of 5. In the second half, Metz had over 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5, Nantes in 1 out of 5. The average total goals for Metz is 2.8, for Nantes 2.6. Metz scores an average of 0.6 goals and concedes 2.2, while Nantes scores 1 and concedes 1.6. Goal intervals: Metz most often scores between the 31st and 45th minute (33%) and concedes between the 0 and 15th minute (40%). Nantes scores most often between the 16th and 30th minute (38%) and concedes between the 31st and 45th and 76th and 90th minutes (40% each). Both teams are not particularly prolific in attack, especially Metz, as evidenced by their low average goals scored. Coupled with frequent under 2.5 totals for both teams and low second-half productivity, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.75 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In the last 5 games, Metz averages 4.6 corners, Nantes 3. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners: Metz 3 out of 5, Nantes 2 out of 5. Among available corner totals, the line closest to the sum of their averages (4.6+3=7.6) is over 8.5 at 1.62 and under 8.5 at 2.15. There's also an option for over 9 at 1.81 and under 9 at 1.93. Metz is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.85. Considering the average corner activity and the frequency of over 9.5 corners, it makes sense to consider betting on over 8.5 or 9 corners in the match.