Prediction for match Metz — Toulouse

Match Analysis: Metz vs Toulouse

In Ligue 1 on March 15, Metz will face Toulouse. The odds for a Toulouse victory are 2.04, for a draw 3.50, and for a Metz win 4.16. Probabilities are Metz - 23.65%, draw - 28.11%, Toulouse - 48.23%. Toulouse is considered the favorite, as confirmed by the statistics from recent encounters between these teams. This match draws attention not only due to the odds but also because of the outcomes of previous head-to-head clashes.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last three matches, Metz lost to Lens 0-3 (08.03.2026), was defeated by Brest 0-1 (01.03.2026), and suffered a heavy loss to PSG 0-3 (21.02.2026). In their last three outings, Toulouse lost to Marseille 0-1 (07.03.2026), beat Marseille 6-5 (04.03.2026), and lost to Rennes 0-1 (28.02.2026). In their last head-to-head meeting on October 19, 2025, Toulouse thrashed Metz 4-0. Additional statistics show that Metz had an average possession of 50.2% over a five-match series, committed 14.2 fouls, 1.4 offsides, and received 2 yellow cards per game. Toulouse had 48.8% possession, 13.6 fouls, 1.4 offsides, and 2.2 yellow cards. These figures indicate a certain level of discipline and midfield battle but do not highlight a clear advantage in secondary parameters.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five games, both teams show average scoring: Metz averages 2.2 goals per match, scoring 0.2 and conceding 2; Toulouse also averages 2.2, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches for Metz and 2 of 5 for Toulouse. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred once for Metz and twice for Toulouse, while in the second half, it happened twice for Metz and once for Toulouse. Metz most frequently scores in the intervals of 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), while Toulouse scores most in the 46-60 minute interval (33%). Metz concedes most often in the closing stages (76-90 minutes - 50%), while Toulouse concedes in the 31-45 minute interval (40%). Overall, both teams do not demonstrate high attacking efficiency, especially Metz, with only 0.2 goals per game. Against this backdrop, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems most logical, considering both the low average scoring and the frequency of unders in halves. The odds for under 2.5 goals are 1.76.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Metz averages 4.4 corners per match, while Toulouse averages 6.6. In the last five meetings, over 9.5 corners occurred twice for Metz and three times for Toulouse. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the sum of the averages (11) is 11, with both outcomes available: over 11 corners at 3.18, under 11 at 1.30. For the outcome on corners, Toulouse is favored with odds of 1.67. Given the average activity of both teams in delivering corners, a bet on over 11 corners looks interesting for risk-takers, but the frequency of occurrence is not stable. Overall, both teams can provide a decent number of corners, especially Toulouse, but the high line requires caution.