Prediction for match Moreirense — Arouca

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga on March 21, Moreirense will face Arouca. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Moreirense win at 2.50, a draw at 3.28, and an Arouca win at 3.08. Looking at the probabilities, Moreirense has a 38.85% chance of winning, a draw is rated at 29.61%, and Arouca's chances stand at 31.54%. Therefore, Moreirense holds a slight edge in the odds, but the gap between the teams isn't significant, which is also reflected in the probability percentages.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Moreirense played as follows: March 15, 2026 - Porto 3-0 Moreirense, March 7, 2026 - Moreirense 1-1 Nacional, March 1, 2026 - Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense. Arouca's last three results were: March 14, 2026 - Arouca 1-2 Benfica, March 6, 2026 - Famalicão 1-0 Arouca, February 27, 2026 - Porto 3-1 Arouca. In their head-to-head encounters, the last meeting was on November 2, 2025 - Arouca 0-2 Moreirense. Over a five-match span, Moreirense averages 46.2% ball possession, 2 yellow cards, 14.8 fouls, and 0.6 offsides per match. Arouca's averages are: possession - 51.4%, yellow cards - 3, fouls - 13.2, offsides - 1.8. These numbers show that Moreirense plays slightly more cautiously in terms of fouls, while Arouca is caught offside more often and receives more bookings.

How Many Goals in the Match Moreirense - Arouca

Regarding goal scoring in the last five matches, Moreirense has an average of 2.6 goals per match, while Arouca averages 3.2. Moreirense scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes 1.8, whereas Arouca scores 1.4 and also concedes 1.8. For over 2.5 goals: Moreirense had 3 out of 5 matches with three or more goals, Arouca had 4 out of 5. Looking at over 1.5 goals, both teams have consistent records for surpassing this mark. In terms of halves, Moreirense had 3 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals in the first half, while Arouca had only 1 out of 5. In the second half, Moreirense had 1 out of 5 over 1.5, Arouca had 3 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Moreirense most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (43%), while Arouca scores most often between the 76th and 90th minutes (27%). Moreirense most frequently concedes between the 46th and 60th and the 61st and 75th minutes (43% each), whereas Arouca's conceded goals are evenly distributed across all 15-minute intervals of the second half, with 20% in each. Considering these statistics and the fact that both teams have relatively high average goals per match, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.17.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

On average, Moreirense earns 2.8 corners per match, and Arouca earns 2.2. In a series of five games, both teams had only one instance where the total exceeded 9.5 corners, with the rest below this mark. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the sum of both teams' averages (5.0) is 8.5. The odds for over 8.5 corners are 1.66, and for under 8.5 corners, 1.70. Arouca is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 2.07. Given the low average corner stats and rare occurrences of high totals, it makes more sense to consider a bet on under 8.5 corners or to avoid betting on high totals in this match.