Prediction for match Benfica — Vitoria Guimaraes

Match Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the Primeira Liga on March 21, Benfica will face Vitoria Guimaraes. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: a win for Benfica is priced at 1.34, a draw at 5.94, and a victory for Vitoria Guimaraes at 8.50. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 72.29% for a Benfica win, 16.31% for a draw, and 11.40% for a Vitoria Guimaraes win. Benfica is the clear favorite by all metrics, and the over 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.64, making it an attractive option for bettors. Other markets such as different goal totals, both teams to score, and individual performances are also available, but based on the combined statistics and odds, betting on the total over 2.5 goals seems to be the optimal choice.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Benfica has shown consistent form: on March 14, they defeated Arouca 2-1, drew 2-2 with Porto on March 8, and beat Gil Vicente 2-1 on March 2. Vitoria Guimaraes, during the same period, lost 1-2 to Famalicao (March 14), were defeated by Santa Clara 0-2 (March 8), and drew 1-1 with Alverca (February 28). On average, over these five matches, Benfica had 56% possession, committed 2.4 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. Vitoria Guimaraes had 53.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 15.2 fouls, and 2 offsides. Their last head-to-head meeting was on November 1, 2025, with Benfica winning 3-0 at Vitoria Guimaraes' ground.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Match

In their last five matches, Benfica has averaged a total of 3.2 goals per game, scoring 2 and conceding 1.2. Vitoria Guimaraes has averaged 3 goals, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8. For the over 2.5 goals market, Benfica has hit this mark in all 5 of their recent games, while Vitoria Guimaraes has done so in 3 out of 5. In the first half, the over 1.5 goals occurred 3 times out of 5 for both teams, and similarly in the second half, 3 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Benfica most frequently scores in the 0-15, 16-30, and 76-90 minute ranges (22% each), while Vitoria Guimaraes scores in four intervals at 22% (0-15, 16-30, 46-60, 61-75). In terms of goals conceded: Benfica is most vulnerable in the first 15 minutes and at the end of the first half (29% each), while Vitoria Guimaraes is most vulnerable in the 16-30 and 46-60 minute intervals (33% each). Given Benfica's high scoring rate, regular over 2.5 goals, and Vitoria Guimaraes' less reliable defense, betting on over 2.5 goals seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Benfica delivers 8.6 corners per match, while Vitoria Guimaraes delivers 3.6. In their last five games, Benfica has exceeded 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5 matches, while Vitoria Guimaraes has done so in 3 out of 5. Considering the closest total to their average, for 12.2 corners, the line offers: over 9.5 corners at 1.78, under 9.5 at 1.90. Benfica is favored in corners with odds of 1.13. Given Benfica's high activity in corner deliveries, betting on over 9.5 corners or Benfica's individual corner total, as well as Benfica to win in this aspect, seems logical.