Prediction for match Nacional — Alverca

Match Analysis: Nacional vs Alverca

On April 18, 2026, Nacional will face Alverca in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Nacional win at 2.28, a draw at 3.50, and an Alverca win at 3.26. The probabilities for a 1X2 outcome are as follows: Nacional - 42.54%, Draw - 27.71%, Alverca - 29.75%. The odds suggest a slight advantage for Nacional, but the gap between the teams is minimal, promising a closely contested battle for points.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Nacional has averaged 0.6 goals per game while conceding an average of 1 goal, with 48.6% possession, 14.2 fouls, 1.8 offsides, and 3 yellow cards. Alverca, over the same period, has scored 1.6 goals, conceded 1.6, maintained 51.2% possession, committed 8.4 fouls, 1 offside, and received 0.8 yellow cards. Recent matches for Nacional: April 12, 2026 - Benfica vs Nacional - 2-0, April 4, 2026 - Nacional vs Estrela - 2-0, March 21, 2026 - Famalicão vs Nacional - 1-0. Alverca's recent games: April 12, 2026 - Alverca vs Casa Pia - 3-1, April 4, 2026 - Rio Ave vs Alverca - 1-2, March 22, 2026 - Alverca vs Sporting Lisbon - 1-4. In their last head-to-head on December 7, 2025, Alverca defeated Nacional 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Nacional has not seen a total over 2.5 goals - 0 out of 5 over, 5 out of 5 under. Alverca, on the other hand, has seen 4 out of 5 matches end with over 2.5 goals. The average number of goals in Nacional's matches is 1.6, while for Alverca it's 3.2. Individually, Nacional scores an average of 0.6, and Alverca 1.6. Only 1 out of 5 first halves for both teams exceeded 1.5 goals, while in the second half, Nacional hasn't exceeded 1.5 goals in any match, but Alverca has done so in 3 out of 5. Goal intervals: Nacional scores most frequently in the first 15 minutes (43%), and concedes either early or between 61-75 minutes (50%). Alverca scores most often in the second half: intervals 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 all at 29%. Alverca's conceded goals are evenly spread across four intervals (22% each). Considering Alverca's attacking style and Nacional's defensive approach, it's reasonable to expect both teams to score. Odds for BTTS: Yes - 1.67.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Over the last 5 matches, the average number of corners: Nacional - 4.6, Alverca - 5.6. In a series of five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 4 times for Nacional and 3 times for Alverca. The odds for total corners over 9.5 are 1.66, and under 9.5 - 2.09. In terms of corner outcomes, Nacional is favored with odds of 1.84. The combined average for both teams is 10.2, supporting a logical bet on over 9.5 total corners. Individual averages: Nacional 4.6, Alverca 5.6, which together provide a good chance for the over 9.5 total corners bet.