Prediction for match Motor Lublin — Jagiellonia, 14.12.2025

Match Analysis: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

The Polish Ekstraklasa presents an intriguing clash between Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia on December 14, 2025. Bookmakers have set close odds for the outcome: a win for Motor Lublin is at 2.48, success for Jagiellonia is at 2.53, and a draw is at 3.56. The probabilities are almost evenly split: 37.36% for Motor Lublin, 36.62% for Jagiellonia, and 26.02% for a draw. This reflects the balance of power and the absence of a clear favorite. A hard-fought battle is expected, where each team can aim for three points.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Motor Lublin has an average ball possession of 51.4%, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 15 fouls, and is caught offside 1.6 times per game. Jagiellonia holds the ball more often at 60.2%, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 12.8 fouls, and is offside 1.4 times. Motor Lublin's last three matches: December 6 - Arka Gdynia vs Motor Lublin 1-0, December 1 - Motor Lublin vs Legia Warsaw 1-1, November 22 - Cracovia vs Motor Lublin 1-2. Jagiellonia's recent games: December 11 - Jagiellonia vs Rayo Vallecano 1-2, December 7 - Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia 2-1, November 30 - Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia 0-0. In their last head-to-head on February 16, 2025, Jagiellonia defeated Motor Lublin 3-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Motor Lublin averages 1.2 goals scored and conceded per match, with a total goal average of 2.4. Jagiellonia is slightly less prolific with 1 goal scored and 1 conceded, totaling 2 goals per game. In the last five matches, Motor Lublin had over 2.5 goals in 2 games, while Jagiellonia had it in 3. In terms of halves, Motor Lublin had over 1.5 goals in the first half 3 times and only once in the second half. Similarly, Jagiellonia had over 1.5 goals in the first half 3 times and none in the second half. This indicates that both teams are more active in the first half, with a drop in pace after the break. Motor Lublin often scores in the first 30 minutes (29% in both 0-15 and 16-30 minute intervals) and concedes most frequently from the 16th to 30th and 76th to 90th minutes (33%). Jagiellonia scores most often from the 16th to 30th minute (40%) and concedes in the first 15 minutes (40%). Considering the average scoring of both teams, the frequency of over 2.5 goals, and the distribution of activity by halves, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.67 seems logical.

Corners in the Match

Motor Lublin averages 4.8 corners in their last five matches, while Jagiellonia averages 5.2. In this five-match span, Motor Lublin had over 9.5 total corners in 2 games, and Jagiellonia in 4. Among the available corner totals, the line close to the average sum (10) is set at 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 1.64, and under 9.5 at 2.10. For corner outcomes, Motor Lublin is the favorite with odds of 1.73. Based on the average activity of both teams and the frequency of overs, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified for this match.