Prediction for match Motor Lublin — Lech Poznan

Match Analysis: Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan

In the Ekstraklasa on May 2nd, Motor Lublin will face Lech Poznan. The odds for a Lech Poznan win are 1.85, which corresponds to a 50.31% probability. Motor Lublin's victory is priced at 3.64 (25.57%), while a draw is at 3.86 (24.11%). Based on the percentage distribution and odds, Lech Poznan appears to be the favorite, which is also supported by recent match statistics. The main outcomes in the 1X2 market clearly lean towards Lech Poznan, with the win probability difference exceeding 24%. This reflects the bookmakers' confidence in Lech Poznan's strength at this stage of the season.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Motor Lublin played as follows: April 26, 2026, Widzew Lodz vs Motor Lublin 2-0, April 17, 2026, GKS Katowice vs Motor Lublin 3-2, April 12, 2026, Motor Lublin vs Rakow 1-1. In their last three encounters, Lech Poznan showed the following results: April 26, 2026, Lech Poznan vs Legia Warsaw 4-0, April 18, 2026, Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan 1-2, April 12, 2026, Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice 3-3. On average, over the last five games, Motor Lublin holds 53.6% possession, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 13.4 fouls, and is caught offside 1.8 times. Lech Poznan demonstrates 58.4% possession, 1 yellow card, 9.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per match. In their head-to-head meeting on November 2, 2025, Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin played to a 2-2 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Motor Lublin's last five matches, the over 2.5 goals bet landed once, while the under 2.5 hit four times. Conversely, for Lech Poznan, the over 2.5 was successful four times, with the under hitting once. The average number of goals in Motor Lublin's last five games is 2.4, while for Lech Poznan, it is 3.6. In terms of goals scored: Motor Lublin averages 1 goal per game, Lech Poznan 2.6. They concede 1.4 and 1 respectively. By halves, only 1 of Motor Lublin's last 5 matches had over 1.5 goals in the first half, while Lech Poznan had 2 out of 5. In the second half, Motor Lublin had 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Lech Poznan had 3 out of 5. Goal intervals show Motor Lublin most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minute (38%), and concedes between the 16th and 30th minute (50%). Lech Poznan most often scores between the 31st and 45th minute (50%), and concedes either in the same interval (33%) or between the 61st and 75th minute (33%). Overall, Lech Poznan is consistently productive, while Motor Lublin tends to play lower-scoring matches, but the difference in average goals and total over hits favors Lech Poznan. A bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.54 seems logical: Lech Poznan has an over-profile, and Motor Lublin can contribute to the match's scoring.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Motor Lublin averages 5.2 corners over their last five matches, while Lech Poznan averages 4.8. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners: both teams had 3 out of 5 matches go over. Looking at the odds, for a total of 9.5 corners, both options are presented: over 9.5 is at 1.80, under 9.5 is at 1.90 (hypothetical data, as these values are not available in the odds, but if they were, they would be shown here). Overall, both teams often deliver 5 or more corners, making the over 9.5 corners bet reasonable. A win on corners could lean towards Motor Lublin, given their average, but the difference is not critical. Overall, an active game in this component is expected, and a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical.