Prediction for match Necaxa — Guadalajara

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Liga MX on April 23, Necaxa will face Guadalajara. The odds for the match highlight Guadalajara as the favorite: their win is priced at 1.70, a draw at 3.98, and a Necaxa victory at 4.28. According to the bookmakers' probability percentages, Guadalajara has a 54.81% chance of winning, a draw is at 23.41%, and Necaxa's chances stand at 21.77%. This reflects not only the league standings but also the current form of the teams, with Guadalajara showing more consistent results and high scoring in recent matches. Considering both teams' attacking stats, options for a high-scoring game also seem promising.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Necaxa has an average possession of 50.6%, receives 1.2 yellow cards, commits 13.8 fouls, and records 0.4 offsides per game. Guadalajara looks stronger with 63.2% possession, 1.4 yellows, 11.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Necaxa's last three games were: 18.04.2026 - Necaxa vs Tigres UANL - 1-1, 11.04.2026 - Querétaro vs Necaxa - 3-1, 04.04.2026 - Necaxa vs Mazatlán - 2-1. Guadalajara's last three matches: 19.04.2026 - Guadalajara vs Puebla - 5-0, 11.04.2026 - Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara - 4-1, 06.04.2026 - Guadalajara vs UNAM Pumas - 2-2. The last head-to-head was on 24.09.2025: Guadalajara vs Necaxa - 3-1.

How Many Goals in the Necaxa vs Guadalajara Match

Both teams play an attacking style. In Necaxa's last five matches, the total over 2.5 goals occurred three times, and under twice. For Guadalajara, all five matches ended with over 2.5 goals. By halves, Necaxa had totals over 1.5 in both halves twice out of five, while Guadalajara had it three times in the first half and five times in the second. Necaxa averages 2.4 goals per match, while Guadalajara averages 4.8. Necaxa scores 1.4 and concedes 1.0, while Guadalajara scores 3.2 and concedes 1.6. Necaxa most frequently scores and concedes between 31-45 minutes (33%), and also concedes between 61-75 and 76-90 (33% each). Guadalajara most frequently scores at the end (76-90, 47%) and concedes between 16-30 minutes (50%). This profile, especially for Guadalajara, indicates a high probability of a high-scoring match. Considering both teams have support for totals over 2.5, and Guadalajara's last five games were high-scoring, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.61 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Necaxa earns 4.6 corners per game, while Guadalajara earns 6.8, totaling 11.4. In the last five matches, Necaxa had over 9.5 corners three times, and Guadalajara twice. Among available corner totals, the 11.5 line is closest to the average: over 11.5 is priced at 2.95, under at 1.35. Guadalajara is favored for corners with odds of 1.65. In this matchup, a high number of corners can be expected, considering both teams' attacking focus and their average figures from recent matches. It's also worth considering the over 9.5 and 11.5 totals, especially if the teams continue their attacking play.