Prediction for match Necaxa — Mazatlán

Match Analysis: Necaxa vs Mazatlán

In Liga MX on April 4th, Necaxa will face Mazatlán in what promises to be an exciting match with potential for goals. The odds for the outcome are as follows: a win for Necaxa is priced at 1.67, a draw at 3.95, and a win for Mazatlán at 4.52. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 55.80% chance of a Necaxa win, 23.59% for a draw, and 20.61% for a Mazatlán victory. This indicates a significant advantage for Necaxa, but Mazatlán is not to be underestimated, considering their attacking profile in recent matches. The over 2.5 goals market is highlighted with odds of 1.67, making it the primary prediction for this match.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at the last three matches for each team, Necaxa played: 21.03.2026 - Necaxa vs Tijuana - 3-0, 14.03.2026 - Puebla vs Necaxa - 0-0, 07.03.2026 - Necaxa vs UNAM Pumas - 0-1. For Mazatlán: 21.03.2026 - Mazatlán vs Cruz Azul - 1-1, 16.03.2026 - Club América vs Mazatlán - 2-0, 07.03.2026 - Mazatlán vs León - 4-2. On average over the last five matches, Necaxa holds 48.8% possession, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 14.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.2 times per game. Mazatlán trails in these metrics: 35.4% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. In their last encounter on 08.11.2025, Mazatlán and Necaxa drew 1-1, highlighting the competitive nature of their matchups.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Necaxa vs Mazatlán Match

The scoring profiles of both teams suggest a game with plenty of goals. Over a five-match span, Necaxa averages a total of 2.0 goals per match, while Mazatlán averages 3.2. Regarding the over 2.5 goals market: Necaxa has seen 3 out of 5 matches with three or more goals, while Mazatlán has seen 2 out of 5. In the first half, Necaxa has only 1 out of 5 matches over 1.5 goals, while Mazatlán has 2 out of 5. However, in the second half, both teams are more active: Necaxa has 2 out of 5 over 1.5 goals, Mazatlán has 3 out of 5. In terms of scoring intervals, Necaxa tends to score most frequently between the 31-45 and 61-75 minute marks (29% each), while Mazatlán scores most between the 46-60 minutes (31%). As for goals conceded, Necaxa's are evenly distributed: 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (33% each), while Mazatlán concedes half of their goals in the final stages (76-90 minutes - 50%). Necaxa's average goals scored is 1, with Mazatlán's at 1.4, and goals conceded are 1 and 1.8 respectively. This data indicates that both teams are capable of scoring and conceding, and the second-half dynamics increase the chances of hitting the over 2.5 goals mark. Considering these statistics, betting on over 2.5 goals seems optimal.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On corners, Necaxa averages 5.4 per match, while Mazatlán averages 3.4. Over the last 5 games, both teams have seen 4 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 total corners. Looking at the odds, both options are presented for the 8.5 total, but the combined average corners (8.8) are closest to the 8.5 line. Necaxa frequently wins in corner totals, given their average. In this scenario, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 8.5 total corners, and also pay attention to Necaxa's individual corner stats, which are consistently higher than their opponent's. Given the frequency of over 9.5 totals, the match could be quite active in terms of wing play.