Prediction for match Necaxa — Toluca

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In Liga MX on February 22, Necaxa will face Toluca. The odds for the match highlight Toluca as the favorite: a victory for them is priced at 1.77, corresponding to a 52.65% chance. A draw is offered at 3.82 (24.40%), while a win for Necaxa is set at 4.06 with a probability of 22.95%. Thus, analysts expect Toluca to have the best chances of winning, with Necaxa as the underdog in this encounter. The probability distribution is as follows: Toluca - 52.65%, draw - 24.40%, Necaxa - 22.95%. This reflects the bookmakers' confidence in Toluca's advantage, although the likelihood of a draw is also quite noticeable.

Team Results and Statistics

Let's look at the form of the teams and their secondary metrics over the last five matches. Necaxa has an average possession percentage of 50.4, yellow cards - 1.4, fouls - 12.4, offsides - 1.6. Toluca has higher possession at 58.6, yellow cards - 2.4, fouls - 13.4, offsides - 2.6. In Necaxa's last three games: 15.02.2026 - Juárez vs Necaxa 1-2, 07.02.2026 - Necaxa vs Atlético San Luis 4-1, 31.01.2026 - Club América vs Necaxa 2-0. For Toluca: 14.02.2026 - Toluca vs Tijuana 1-0, 07.02.2026 - Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-1, 31.01.2026 - Puebla vs Toluca 0-0. In their last head-to-head on 13.07.2025, Toluca defeated Necaxa 3-1.

Goal Scoring Series of the Teams

In terms of scoring over a five-match series, both teams have an average of 1.2 goals scored, but Necaxa concedes 1.4, while Toluca only 0.4. The average total goals per match for Necaxa is 2.6, and for Toluca - 1.6. Over 5 matches, Necaxa's total over 2.5 was achieved 2 times, under - 3, Toluca over - 1, under - 4. By halves, Necaxa's total over 1.5 in the first half occurred 3 times, Toluca - none. In the second half, Necaxa had total over 1.5 only once, Toluca - twice. Necaxa most frequently scores between the 31-45 minute mark (43%) and concedes in the same interval (50%). Toluca's most frequent goals come between 46-60 minutes (50%), and their conceded goals are spread across four intervals at 25% each. Overall, the statistics suggest that the match might not be very high-scoring, considering Toluca's low average goals conceded and the low frequency of total over 2.5 for both teams. The odds for total under 2.5 are at 2.05, making this an attractive betting option.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For corners, Necaxa's average over 5 matches is 5, while Toluca's is 6.4. Over the five-match span, Necaxa's total corners over 9.5 was achieved 3 times, Toluca - 1 time. If we consider the total corners, the line closest to the sum of the averages (11.4) is 11.5: for total over 11.5, the odds are 2.92, for under - 1.35. Toluca is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.79. Overall, given the high average figures for corners, it makes sense to consider a bet on total over 9.5 or 10.5, and also to note Toluca's edge in this aspect.