Prediction for match Newells Old Boys — Independiente

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Argentine Professional League, Newells Old Boys will face Independiente on January 28. The odds for an Independiente win are 2.36, a draw is at 2.80, and a victory for Newells Old Boys is offered at 3.50. In terms of probability: Independiente - 39.73%, draw - 33.48%, Newells Old Boys - 26.79%. Independiente is highlighted as the favorite by these metrics, but the gap between the teams isn't critical, and a draw is also rated quite highly.

Team Results and Statistics

Newells Old Boys have suffered two defeats in their last three matches: on January 24, they lost to Talleres Cordoba 1-2, on November 16, they were beaten by Racing 0-1, and on November 8, they defeated Huracan 2-0. Independiente, in their last three matches, drew with Estudiantes 1-1 (January 23), then secured two victories: over Rosario Central 1-0 on November 16 and over Deportivo Riestra 1-0 on November 10. In their head-to-head on November 26, 2024, Newells Old Boys were stronger than Independiente with a score of 2-1. Additional statistics: Newells Old Boys average 34.6% possession over five matches, receive 2.6 yellow cards, commit 11.8 fouls, and have 2.2 offsides. Independiente averages 53.8% possession, 2.6 yellows, 9.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Newells Old Boys have an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Independiente averages 2.0. In terms of scoring: Newells Old Boys - 0.8, Independiente - 1.8, and for goals conceded, it's 1.4 and 0.2 respectively. In terms of over 2.5 goals: both teams had 2 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals, 3 out of 5 were under. In the first half, Newells Old Boys had 2 out of 5 games with two or more goals, Independiente had 1 out of 5. In the second half, Newells Old Boys had only 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Independiente had 2 out of 5. For goal intervals: Newells Old Boys most frequently scores between 16-30 minutes (40%), Independiente also in this interval (44%). Newells Old Boys most often concedes between 16-30 and 76-90 minutes (33% each), Independiente in the second half: 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (50% each). Considering Newells Old Boys' low scoring and Independiente's solid defense, betting on under 2.25 goals at 1.51 seems logical. Independiente is stable in attack, but Newells Old Boys rarely scores more than one goal, and in the last five matches, they only had two games with over 2.5 goals. Independiente concedes very little - just 0.2 per game. Altogether, this forms a low-scoring profile for the match, where the likelihood of three or more goals is low, and betting on under 2.25 goals appears optimal.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For average corners, Newells Old Boys earn 3.6 per game, Independiente - 5.8. In the last five matches, both teams had 3 out of 5 games with over 9.5 corners. Looking at the total closest to the average, for the 9.5 line, there are a couple of outcomes: over 9.5 corners - 2.13, under 9.5 - 1.59. For corners outcome, Independiente is the favorite with odds of 1.76. Overall, both teams are capable of earning corners, especially Independiente, and betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, considering the frequency and average figures. Newells Old Boys often earn fewer, but Independiente compensates with high activity on the flanks and ball possession.