Prediction for match Zwolle — AZ Alkmaar

Match Analysis: Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar

On December 3, 2025, Zwolle will face AZ Alkmaar in the KNVB Cup. The odds for the match are as follows: Zwolle's win is priced at 3.59, a draw at 3.60, and AZ Alkmaar's win at 1.87. The probability distribution is: Zwolle - 25.53%, draw - 25.46%, AZ Alkmaar - 49.01%. AZ Alkmaar is seen as the favorite by the bookmakers, although the difference between a draw and a Zwolle win is minimal. This matchup traditionally garners interest due to their frequent encounters in recent years.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Zwolle has averaged 43.4% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 9.2 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game. AZ Alkmaar averages 57.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 8.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Recent results for Zwolle: November 28 - Zwolle 2-1 Heerenveen, November 23 - Groningen 2-2 Zwolle, November 8 - Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam. For AZ Alkmaar: November 30 - Twente 1-0 AZ Alkmaar, November 27 - AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Shelbourne, November 23 - Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar. Their last head-to-head was on September 24, 2025: AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Zwolle.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Match Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar

Zwolle has been playing high-scoring games, with an average total of 4.6 goals in their last five matches, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.4 goals per game. AZ Alkmaar has an average total of 3.4, scoring 1 and conceding 2.4 goals. Zwolle has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, and AZ Alkmaar in 3 out of 5. Over 1.5 goals in the first half occurred 4 times for Zwolle and 3 times for AZ Alkmaar. In the second half, Zwolle had 3 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals, while AZ Alkmaar had all 5 matches with over 1.5 in the second half. Both teams most frequently score between the 31st and 45th minutes (36%). Zwolle most often concedes in the intervals of 0-15, 31-45, and 61-75 minutes (22% each), while AZ Alkmaar concedes most in the intervals of 0-15, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Given the high scoring nature of both teams, frequent over 2.5 goals, and active second halves, betting on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Zwolle averages 2.8 corners per match, and AZ Alkmaar 4.2. In their last five games, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 2 times for Zwolle and 3 times for AZ Alkmaar. The odds for corner totals of 8.5 are available for both over 8.5 and under 8.5. Over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.72, under 8.5 at 2.00. Considering the combined average of 7 corners, betting on over 8.5 corners is moderately risky but not out of the question. Zwolle takes significantly fewer corners than AZ Alkmaar, which might affect the overall number of set pieces. Overall, there is no clear bias towards a high corner total, but a moderate exceedance of the average line is possible.