Prediction for match Rayo Vallecano — Girona

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In La Liga on May 11, 2026, Rayo Vallecano will face Girona. The odds for a Rayo Vallecano victory are 2.52, for a Girona win - 3.02, and a draw is priced at 3.48. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Rayo Vallecano 39.08%, draw 28.30%, Girona 32.61%. Based on these figures, Rayo Vallecano holds a slight edge, but the gap between the teams isn't significant. Over/under options are also available: over 2.5 goals is at 1.91, under 2.5 at 2.03, both teams to score - yes at 1.63, no at 2.17. Among individual totals, Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals is at 2.10, and Girona over 1.5 is at 2.43. Double chance options: 1X - 1.44, X2 - 1.59, 12 - 1.36. The both teams to score: yes at 1.63 looks intriguing given the current scoring stats of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano averages 52% possession, receives 4 yellow cards, commits 16.2 fouls, and records 1 offside per game. Girona, on the other hand, averages 54.6% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Rayo Vallecano's last three matches: 07.05.2026 Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano 0-1, 03.05.2026 Getafe - Rayo Vallecano 0-2, 30.04.2026 Rayo Vallecano - Strasbourg 1-0. Girona's last three games: 01.05.2026 Girona - Mallorca 0-1, 25.04.2026 Valencia - Girona 2-1, 21.04.2026 Girona - Real Betis 2-3. In their last head-to-head on 15.08.2025, Girona lost to Rayo Vallecano 1-3.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Match

In a five-match series, Rayo Vallecano's average number of goals per match is 2.2, while Girona's is 2.4. Rayo Vallecano scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 0.6, while Girona scores 1 and concedes 1.4. For over 2.5 goals: Rayo Vallecano has only 1 out of 5, Girona 2 out of 5. In the first half, both teams recorded over 1.5 goals only once in 5 matches, but in the second half - 3 times out of 5. Rayo Vallecano scores most often between the 76th and 90th minutes (57%), and Girona between the 46th and 60th minutes (50%). Both teams concede most frequently from the 61st to the 75th minute: Rayo Vallecano 43%, Girona 50%. Given the low frequency of over 2.5 goals and the average goal totals, the under 3.0 goals at 1.53 seems the most reliable bet. Both teams are capable of scoring, but the stats don't confirm a strong over profile.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Rayo Vallecano averages 4.8 corners in their last five games, while Girona averages 3.8. For over 9.5 corners: Rayo Vallecano 3 out of 5, Girona 2 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8.6) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners is at 1.36, under 8.5 at 2.70. There's also a 9.5 line: over 9.5 - 1.65, under 9.5 - 2.05. For corner outcomes, Rayo Vallecano is favored at 1.59. Considering both teams' average activity in corner kicks, it's logical to consider a bet on over 8.5 or 9.5 corners, as well as a Rayo Vallecano advantage in corner count.