Prediction for match Real Madrid — Monaco, 20.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The Champions League continues to deliver top matchups, and the clash between Real Madrid and Monaco is no exception. Bookmakers have set the odds at 1.31 for a Real Madrid win, 6.40 for a draw, and 10.40 for a Monaco victory. In terms of probability percentages, the distribution is as follows: Real Madrid win 75.15%, draw 15.38%, Monaco win 9.47%. This setup indicates that the Spanish club is the clear favorite, while Monaco is seen as the underdog. Additionally, the odds for over 3.5 total goals are 1.97, and for both teams to score: yes - 1.66, suggesting an expectation of a high-scoring game from both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

Real Madrid has shown confident play in their last five matches: 2-0 against Levante (17.01.2026), 2-3 against Albacete (14.01.2026), 2-3 against Barcelona (11.01.2026). They also secured victories over Atletico Madrid 2-1 (08.01.2026) and Real Betis 5-1 (04.01.2026). During the same period, Monaco played as follows: 1-3 against Lorient (16.01.2026), 1-3 against Orleans (10.01.2026), 1-3 against Lyon (03.01.2026), 2-1 against Auxerre (21.12.2025), 0-1 against Marseille (14.12.2025). On average, Real Madrid holds possession 57.2% of the time, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 10.6 fouls, and is caught offside 0.8 times per game. Monaco has 49% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. The last head-to-head match on September 11, 2024, ended in a goalless draw - 0-0.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Real Madrid - Monaco Match

In their last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring football. Real Madrid's over 2.5 goals occurred 4 out of 5 times, and similarly for Monaco - 4 out of 5 times. The average number of goals in Real Madrid's matches during this period is 4.2, while Monaco's is 3.2. Real Madrid scores an average of 2.6 goals and concedes 1.6, whereas Monaco scores 1.4 and concedes 1.8. In terms of halves, Real Madrid's over 1.5 goals in the second half was recorded 4 out of 5 times, and Monaco's 3 out of 5, confirming their activity after the break. In the first half, both teams exceeded 1.5 goals 2 out of 5 times. As for goal intervals, Real Madrid most frequently scores between the 46th-60th and 76th-90th minutes (29% each), while Monaco scores most often towards the end, 76th-90th minutes (60%). Real Madrid concedes more goals between the 31st-45th minutes (43%), and Monaco between the 76th-90th (45%). Given the high scoring nature of both sides, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and the emphasis on the second half, betting on over 3.5 goals at 1.97 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Real Madrid earns an average of 6.2 corners per game, while Monaco earns 4.8. In a five-match series, Real Madrid's over 9.5 corner total occurred 4 times, and Monaco's 3 times. The closest to the combined average total is 11.0, but the line offers a pair on the 9.5 total: over 9.5 - no odds available, under 9.5 - no odds available. The most logical choice for corners seems to be betting on over 9.5, considering the average figures for both teams and the frequency of occurrences in recent matches. It is also worth noting that Real Madrid consistently takes more corners than Monaco, which could affect the match dynamics.