Prediction for match São Bernardo — Ponte Preta

Match Analysis: São Bernardo vs. Ponte Preta

In Brazil's Serie B on May 3rd, São Bernardo faces Ponte Preta. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: São Bernardo's victory is priced at 2.02, a draw at 2.88, and Ponte Preta's win at 4.34. In terms of probability: São Bernardo - 46.15%, draw - 32.37%, Ponte Preta - 21.48%. The most likely outcome is São Bernardo's success, though bookmakers also see a high chance of a draw. As for the totals: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.21, both teams to score - yes at 1.92, no at 1.79. For individual team totals: São Bernardo over 1.5 goals is at 2.21, Ponte Preta over 0.5 goals is at 1.55.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, São Bernardo defeated Náutico Recife 3-0, lost to Fortaleza 0-1, and beat Botafogo SP 2-1. Ponte Preta won against América Mineiro 1-0, beat Avaí 2-1, and lost to Vila Nova 0-1. In their last head-to-head on January 22, 2026, Ponte Preta lost to São Bernardo 0-1. Additional stats: São Bernardo averages 46.6% possession over five matches, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 12.2 fouls, and records 2.4 offsides. Ponte Preta has 41.4% possession, 2 yellow cards, 19.2 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. These figures indicate São Bernardo plays more cautiously and controls the ball more, while Ponte Preta commits more fouls.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, São Bernardo's average total goals are 2.4, while Ponte Preta's are 1.6. São Bernardo scores an average of 1.4 and concedes 1, whereas Ponte Preta both scores and concedes 0.8. For over 2.5 goals: São Bernardo has 3 out of 5 matches over, while Ponte Preta has only 1 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals in the first half, both teams have only 1 out of 5. In the second half, both teams have 2 out of 5 over 1.5. São Bernardo most frequently scores between 0-15 minutes (100%), while Ponte Preta scores between 31-45 minutes (50%). In terms of conceding: São Bernardo concedes most frequently at the end (76-90, 56%), Ponte Preta between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (40% each). These data suggest São Bernardo has a more pronounced attacking profile, while Ponte Preta plays cautiously and rarely engages in high-scoring matches. The bet on under 2.5 goals is at 1.63, but given São Bernardo's average scoring rate and frequency, expecting at least two goals is reasonable. Meanwhile, the bet on over 2.0 goals is at 1.61 and seems logical: São Bernardo has 3 out of 5 matches with three or more goals, and their average total goals are above 2. Based on the overall statistics, the optimal choice is over 2.0 goals at 1.61.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

São Bernardo averages 3.8 corners per match, while Ponte Preta averages 4.2. For over 9.5 corners: São Bernardo has 4 out of 5, and Ponte Preta has 3 out of 5. Among corner markets, the total of 8.0 is closest to the average figures, but for the total of 9.5, there are two outcomes: over 9.5 at 1.62, under 9.5 at 2.14. São Bernardo is favored to win the corner market with odds of 1.46. Statistically, both teams regularly deliver at least 4 corners, and the frequent occurrence of over 9.5 corners makes betting on this total justified. Individual team corner totals can also be considered, given their stable delivery rates.