Prediction for match Santos — Fluminense

Match Analysis: Santos vs Fluminense

The Serie A clash between Santos and Fluminense is set for April 19, 2026. In the 1X2 betting market, Santos is priced at 2.66, Fluminense at 2.82, and a draw at 3.21. The implied probabilities are as follows: Santos - 36.08%, draw - 29.89%, Fluminense - 34.03%. The teams are quite evenly matched, which is reflected in both the odds and the probabilities. Interestingly, neither side is a clear favorite, with bookmakers giving almost equal chances for both teams to win.

Team Performance and Statistics

In their last five matches, Santos has averaged 55.8% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. They also average 5.6 corners per match. Fluminense, on the other hand, averages 64% possession, 0.8 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 1 offside per game, with 6.4 corners per match. In their last three games, Santos played as follows: April 15, 2026 - Santos 1-1 Deportivo Recoleta, April 11, 2026 - Santos 1-0 Atlético Mineiro, April 8, 2026 - Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 Santos. Fluminense's last three matches were: April 16, 2026 - Fluminense 1-2 Independiente Rivadavia, April 12, 2026 - Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo, April 7, 2026 - Deportivo La Guaira 0-0 Fluminense. The last head-to-head meeting on August 31, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Santos has an average of 2 goals per game, scoring 1 and conceding 1 per match. Fluminense's average is slightly higher at 2.4, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In terms of over 2.5 goals: Santos had just 1 out of 5 matches go over, while Fluminense had 3 out of 5. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals were scored once for Santos and twice for Fluminense, while in the second half, it happened once for Santos and three times for Fluminense. The most frequent scoring period for Santos is between the 61st and 75th minute (38%), and for Fluminense, it's between the 76th and 90th minute (33%). In terms of goals conceded, Santos is most vulnerable between the 31st and 45th minutes and the 46th and 60th minutes (50% each), while Fluminense's key periods are the 46th to 60th and 76th to 90th minutes (33% each). Given Fluminense's three over 2.5 goals games out of five, and both teams' average total not dropping below 2, betting on over 2.0 goals at odds of 1.63 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Santos averages 5.6 corners per match, while Fluminense averages 6.4. In their last five matches, both teams have had 3 out of 5 games go over 9.5 corners. Considering the total corners, there are two options: over 9.5 is priced at 1.67, under 9.5 at 2.05. For corner outcomes, Santos is priced at 1.92, Fluminense at 2.15. The corner statistics and the frequency of over 9.5 totals for both teams suggest that betting on over 9.5 corners is justified.