Prediction for match Sao Paulo — Flamengo, 29.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The Serie A match between Sao Paulo and Flamengo will take place on January 29, 2026. Bookmakers have made Flamengo the favorites: their win is priced at 2.02, a draw at 3.40, and a victory for Sao Paulo at 3.97. The probability distribution is as follows: Sao Paulo - 24.20%, draw - 28.25%, Flamengo - 47.55%. This reflects Flamengo's advantage in the current line and the high expectations for this team.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Sao Paulo lost to Palmeiras 1-3, were defeated by Portuguesa 2-3, and drew with Corinthians 1-1. During the same period, Flamengo lost to Fluminense 1-2, beat Vasco da Gama 1-0, and lost to Volta Redonda 0-3. Sao Paulo's average ball possession over five games is 55.8%, while Flamengo's is 54%. Sao Paulo averages 1.8 yellow cards, Flamengo - 3. Average fouls: Sao Paulo - 12.4, Flamengo - 13.4. Both teams average 1.2 offsides per game. In their last head-to-head meeting on November 6, 2025, the teams drew 2-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Sao Paulo's average total goals per match is 2.6, while Flamengo's is 2.4. In the last five games, Sao Paulo's total over 2.5 occurred 2 times, under - 3, whereas for Flamengo, it was the opposite: 3 out of 5 over, 2 under. Individually, Sao Paulo scores 1 goal per game, Flamengo - 0.8, both concede 1.6. In the first half, total over 1.5 was recorded only once for both teams, the same in the second half - 1 out of 5. Sao Paulo most often scored between 76-90 minutes (50%), Flamengo in two intervals: 0-15 and 61-75 (29% each). Goals conceded by Sao Paulo mostly come in 76-90 (40%), for Flamengo - 61-75 (67%). This profile indicates that both teams can score, but consistent scoring by halves is not observed. The cumulative totals and frequencies of over 2.5 suggest a moderate probability of three or more goals, but do not make this option a clear favorite. The most logical choice seems to be a bet on total over 2.0 with odds of 1.53, considering that both teams average close to two goals per game, and Flamengo more frequently achieves over 2.5.

Corner Totals Analysis

On average, Sao Paulo earns 4.6 corners, Flamengo - 6.8 per match. In the last five matches, both teams surpassed the total over 9.5 corners four times. Looking at the odds, for a total of 9.5 there are two outcomes: over 9.5 - 1.78, under 9.5 - 1.97. Flamengo is favored in corners with odds of 1.76. Based on the average sum of corners (11.4), a bet on total over 9.5 seems justified, and Flamengo more often surpasses the opponent in this metric.