Prediction for match Sport Recife — Gremio, 07.12.2025

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on December 7, Sport Recife will face Gremio. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Gremio victory at 1.73, which corresponds to a 55.50% probability. A draw is priced at 3.90 (24.62%), while a win for Sport Recife is at 4.83 (19.88%). According to these odds and percentages, Gremio stands out as the team with the best chance of success in this encounter. This is further supported by the probability distribution, where Gremio has a clear advantage. In this match, Gremio is the favorite based on all major betting indicators.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Sport Recife has suffered defeats: they lost 0-2 to Bahia on December 3, 0-3 to Santos on November 29, and 1-3 to Vitoria on November 23. Gremio lost 1-2 to Fluminense on December 3, defeated Palmeiras 3-2 on November 26, and lost 2-3 to Botafogo on November 22. Over a five-match series, Sport Recife averages 42.2% possession, 3.4 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Gremio's averages are 51.8% possession, 3.2 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1 offside. The last head-to-head meeting was on August 10, 2025: Gremio 0-1 Sport Recife. These figures reflect the current playing style of both teams and their discipline in defense and attack. Gremio shows a higher ball possession percentage and slightly less aggression in terms of yellow cards.

How Many Goals in Sport Recife vs Gremio Match

In a series of five matches, Sport Recife averages 4 goals per game, scoring only 0.8 and conceding 3.2. Gremio's matches average 3.6 goals, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 2. Both teams have exceeded the 2.5 total goals mark in 4 out of 5 matches, indicating a high-scoring tendency in their encounters. In the first half, Sport Recife has 5 out of 5 games with more than 1.5 total goals, while Gremio has 3 out of 5. In the second half, Sport Recife has 2 out of 5 over 1.5, and Gremio has 3 out of 5. Sport Recife most frequently scores between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (27% each), while they concede early (0-15 minutes - 30%) and in the 61st-75th minute period (30%). Gremio often scores in three different intervals: 0-15, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (22% each). Gremio's conceded goals are spread across four intervals from the 16th to the 90th minute, each at 22%. These statistics suggest that both teams tend to have high-scoring matches, making the over 2.5 goals bet a logical choice. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.74.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Sport Recife averages 4.4 corners per game over 5 matches, while Gremio averages 5.2. Sport Recife has seen over 9.5 total corners in 4 out of 5 games, and Gremio in 3 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.56, and under 9.5 is 2.33. Gremio is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.75. Given the average figures for both teams and the frequency of exceeding the 9.5 total, betting on over 9.5 corners appears justified. Gremio consistently delivers more corners, as confirmed by their average over 5 matches.