Prediction for match Tigres UANL — Toluca

Match Odds and Probability Percentages

In Liga MX on January 18, 2026, Tigres UANL will face Toluca. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Tigres UANL is priced at 2.19, a draw is at 3.16, and a win for Toluca is at 3.34. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Tigres UANL - 42.58%, draw - 29.51%, Toluca - 27.92%. These numbers indicate that Tigres UANL is the favorite, but the gap between the teams is not overwhelming. Interestingly, the odds for a draw and a win for Toluca are quite close, reflecting moderate intrigue in this matchup.

Team Stats and Scores

Let's take a look at the recent performances of both teams. Tigres UANL, over their last 5 games, averaged 49.2% possession, 2 yellow cards, 15 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Toluca, in the same period, had 55.2% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In Tigres UANL's last three matches: 15.01.2026 - Tigres UANL vs UNAM Pumas - 0-1, 12.01.2026 - Atlético San Luis vs Tigres UANL - 1-2, 15.12.2025 - Toluca vs Tigres UANL - 11-9. For Toluca: 15.01.2026 - Toluca vs Santos Laguna - 3-1, 11.01.2026 - Monterrey vs Toluca - 0-1, 15.12.2025 - Toluca vs Tigres UANL - 11-9. The last head-to-head match was on 15.12.2025: Toluca vs Tigres UANL - 11-9.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of goal scoring over the last 5 games, Tigres UANL averaged 2 goals per match, scoring 1 and conceding 1. Toluca's average total was 2.8, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1. In terms of matches with over 2.5 goals: Tigres UANL saw this in 2 out of 5, and Toluca in 3 out of 5. For halves, Tigres UANL saw over 1.5 goals in the first half once in 5 games, and twice in the second half. Toluca saw this twice in the first half and three times in the second half. Goal intervals show Tigres UANL scores most frequently between the 46th and 60th minute (40%) and concedes most often between the 76th and 90th minute (33%). Toluca scores 60% of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute and concedes most frequently in the same interval - 46th to 60th minute (40%). These data, along with the odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.83, suggest a bet on a high-scoring match. Both teams are capable of finding the net, which is supported by their average scoring rates and the frequency of over goals by halves.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In their last five matches, Tigres UANL averaged 8.2 corners, while Toluca averaged 4.8. For matches with over 9.5 corners, Tigres UANL achieved this in 3 out of 5 games, and Toluca in 1 out of 5. The odds for the total corners are set at 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.87, and under 9.5 is also at 1.87. Tigres UANL is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.87. Given Tigres UANL's high average for corners and Toluca's moderate rate, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. It is also notable that Tigres UANL regularly takes more than 8 corners per match, indicating high attacking activity.