Prediction for match Union Berlin — Mainz 05

Match Analysis: Union Berlin vs Mainz 05

The Bundesliga continues to offer thrilling encounters, and in the upcoming round, Union Berlin will face Mainz 05. The match is scheduled for January 10, 2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Union Berlin is the favorite: a win for them is priced at 2.23, a draw at 3.33, and a victory for Mainz 05 at 3.74. In terms of probability, Union Berlin has a 44.13% chance of winning, a draw is at 29.55%, and Mainz 05 has a 26.31% chance. These numbers reflect Union Berlin's advantage, but Mainz 05 is not without hope, promising a competitive match. There are also a variety of betting options for totals and both teams to score, offering interesting choices for predictions.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Union Berlin has an average possession of 43%, receives 2.8 yellow cards, commits 12.6 fouls, and records 1.6 offsides per game. During the same period, Mainz 05 maintains 40.2% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 9.4 fouls, and also records 1.6 offsides. Looking at Union Berlin's last three matches: December 20, 2025 - Cologne vs Union Berlin - 0-1, December 12, 2025 - Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig - 3-1, December 6, 2025 - Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin - 3-1. Mainz 05's recent games: December 21, 2025 - Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli - 0-0, December 18, 2025 - Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor - 2-0, December 14, 2025 - Bayern vs Mainz 05 - 2-2. In their last head-to-head on January 19, 2025, Union Berlin came out on top with a 2-1 victory.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Union Berlin stands out in terms of scoring: the average total goals in their last 5 matches is 3.4, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8. In contrast, Mainz 05 has a lower scoring average of 1.8 goals, scoring 1 and conceding 0.8. Union Berlin has gone over 2.5 total goals in 4 out of 5 matches, while Mainz 05 has done so in only 1 out of 5. By halves, Union Berlin has seen over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 out of 5 matches and in the second half in 3 out of 5. Mainz 05 has seen over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 out of 5 matches and in the second half in 1 out of 5. Union Berlin most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minute (33%) and concedes between the 76th and 90th minute (44%). Mainz 05 tends to score between the 31st and 45th minute (40%) and concedes evenly across four intervals: 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75 (25% each). Given Union Berlin's high scoring and both teams' not-so-reliable defenses, betting on over 2.5 goals with odds of 2.27 seems justified - Union Berlin consistently plays in high-scoring matches, and Mainz 05 can contribute to the goal tally, especially considering their head-to-heads where goals were almost always present.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Regarding corners, Union Berlin averages 5.6 in their last 5 matches, while Mainz 05 averages 5.4. The frequency of going over 9.5 corners is 3 out of 5 for Union Berlin and 2 out of 5 for Mainz 05. The line for total corners 9.5 is set with odds: over 9.5 at 1.82, under 9.5 at 1.92. Union Berlin is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.93. Overall, both teams regularly win 5 or more corners, making a bet on over 9.5 corners logical - especially considering their attacking style and frequent wing play. Additionally, Mainz 05 is capable of actively earning corners, increasing the chances of exceeding the corner total.