Prediction for match Union Saint-Gilloise — Charleroi, 11.02.2026

Match Analysis: Union Saint-Gilloise vs Charleroi

Union Saint-Gilloise will face Charleroi in the Belgian Cup on February 11. The 1X2 odds are as follows: Union Saint-Gilloise win at 1.57, draw at 3.88, and Charleroi win at 5.78. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: 59.66% for a Union Saint-Gilloise win, 24.14% for a draw, and 16.20% for a Charleroi win. Union Saint-Gilloise is considered the favorite, but the probabilities are not drastically different, which could add some intrigue to the match. The odds for total goals over 2.5 are 1.89, and for under 2.5 are 1.88, indicating a slight lean towards a high-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Union Saint-Gilloise has averaged 42.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 2.6 offsides per game. Charleroi averages 50.2% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 14.6 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Union Saint-Gilloise's last three matches: 08.02.2026 - Union Saint-Gilloise vs RAAL La Louvière - 2-1, 01.02.2026 - Union Saint-Gilloise vs Club Brugge - 1-0, 28.01.2026 - Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta - 1-0. Charleroi's matches: 07.02.2026 - Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge - 3-4, 31.01.2026 - Sint-Truiden vs Charleroi - 0-2, 25.01.2026 - Royal Antwerp vs Charleroi - 0-2. In their last head-to-head on 04.02.2026, Charleroi and Union Saint-Gilloise played out a 0-0 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Union Saint-Gilloise has an average total of 1.4 goals in their last five matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.6 per game. Charleroi's figures are higher: a 3.2 total, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1. With respect to over 2.5 goals, Union Saint-Gilloise had only 1 of 5 games over, while Charleroi had 2 of 5. By halves, Union Saint-Gilloise recorded 1 of 5 over 1.5 in both first and second halves, while Charleroi had 3 of 5 in the first half and 2 of 5 in the second. Union Saint-Gilloise most frequently scored in the 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minute intervals (29% each), while Charleroi scored 50% of their goals in the 16-30 minute range. All of Union Saint-Gilloise's conceded goals came in the first 15 minutes, while Charleroi conceded 40% in the same period. Given Union Saint-Gilloise's low scoring and Charleroi's moderate over-profile, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.88 seems logical: Union Saint-Gilloise had four of five low-scoring games, and their last head-to-head ended goalless.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Union Saint-Gilloise averages 4.8 corners per game, while Charleroi averages 5.6. In their last 5 matches, Union Saint-Gilloise had 3 out of 5 games with over 9.5 corners, Charleroi had 4 out of 5. The line is set at 9.5 corners: over 9.5 is at 1.85, under 9.5 at 1.95. Based on these stats, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, as both teams regularly reach high corner numbers. Additionally, Charleroi fouls more often (14.6 vs 11.6), potentially leading to more set pieces and, consequently, more corners in the match.