Prediction for match Union Saint-Gilloise — Marseille, 09.12.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The UEFA Champions League continues to deliver intriguing matchups, and the clash between Union Saint-Gilloise and Marseille is no exception. The odds for Marseille to win are 2.43, while a victory for Union Saint-Gilloise is priced at 3.01, and a draw is at 3.68. In terms of probability percentages, Marseille has 40.52%, Union Saint-Gilloise 32.72%, and a draw 26.76%. These numbers suggest Marseille is the favorite, but the gap isn't significant, indicating a potentially tight contest. Notably, the odds for both teams to score are 1.49, over 2.5 goals at 1.69, and under 3.5 goals at 1.53.

Team Results and Statistics

Union Saint-Gilloise holds 53.4% possession in their last five matches, averaging 2 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. Marseille appears slightly more disciplined with 60.8% possession, 2 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. Recently, Union Saint-Gilloise drew 1-1 with Gent (06.12), lost 0-1 to Anderlecht (30.11), and defeated Galatasaray 1-0 (25.11). Marseille recently lost 0-1 to Lille (05.12), drew 2-2 with Toulouse (29.11), and beat Newcastle 2-1 (25.11). These results show both teams are capable of tight contests and high-scoring games, especially Marseille, who have scored at least two goals in recent matches.

Goals and Totals

In terms of goal productivity, Union Saint-Gilloise shows a low-scoring profile: none of their last five matches have seen over 2.5 goals, with all ending under. Their average goal count is 1.6 per match, scoring exactly 1 and conceding 0.6. For Union Saint-Gilloise, there haven't been any first-half matches with over 1.5 goals, and only one second-half match out of five ended with two or more goals. Marseille, on the other hand, has an over-profile: 4 out of their last 5 matches have gone over 2.5 goals, with an average total of 3.4, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1 per game. Marseille surpassed 1.5 goals in the first half twice in five matches, and three times in the second half. Union Saint-Gilloise most frequently scores between the 76-90 minute mark (60%), while conceding evenly at the start, middle, and end of the second half (33% each). Marseille most commonly scores between the 61-75 minute mark (33%), and concedes most often in the first 15 minutes (38%). Given Union Saint-Gilloise's consistently low-scoring games and Marseille's high-scoring potential, but with the odds for under 3.5 goals at 1.53, a bet on under 3.5 goals seems reasonable. This is supported by Union Saint-Gilloise's low scoring and the fact that even with Marseille's activity, the total goals rarely exceed three.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Union Saint-Gilloise averages 6.4 corners per match, while Marseille averages 7.4, totaling 13.8. In their last five matches, Union Saint-Gilloise has exceeded 9.5 corners twice, and Marseille three times. Considering the totals, there's an option for over 9.5 corners at 2.00, and under 9.5 at 1.82. This high average suggests a bet on over corners is justified. In terms of corner outcomes, Marseille appears to be the favorite based on average delivery numbers, but odds for this market are not provided. Overall, both teams are inclined to play actively near the opponent's goal, increasing the likelihood of numerous corners.