Prediction for match Aston Villa — Bologna

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

Aston Villa and Bologna face off in the Europa League on 16.04.2026. According to the 1X2 odds, bookmakers favor Aston Villa: a win for them is priced at 1.67, a draw at 4.26, and a Bologna win at 5.53. In terms of probability, Aston Villa has a 59.03% chance of winning, a draw is at 23.14%, and Bologna's chance of success is 17.83%. The main prediction is over 2.5 goals with odds of 1.77, reflecting the expectation of a high-scoring match. There are also options for totals, both teams to score, individual performances, and double chance, but the over 2.5 goals bet seems the most logical choice based on the statistics of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Aston Villa shows average possession of 51.8%, yellow cards at 1.2, fouls at 7.8, and offsides at 1. In the same period, Bologna has 55.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 17.6 fouls, and 3.6 offsides. Aston Villa's last three results are: 12.04.2026 - Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa, 09.04.2026 - Bologna 1-3 Aston Villa, 22.03.2026 - Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham. For Bologna: 12.04.2026 - Bologna 2-0 Lecce, 09.04.2026 - Bologna 1-3 Aston Villa, 05.04.2026 - Cremonese 1-2 Bologna. In their last meeting on 09.04.2026, Bologna lost to Aston Villa 1-3. Previous encounters also saw Aston Villa victories: 25.09.2025 - Aston Villa 1-0 Bologna, 22.10.2024 - Aston Villa 2-0 Bologna.

How Many Goals to Expect?

The average number of goals in Aston Villa's last five games is 2.8, while Bologna's is 3.6. Both teams score an average of 1.8 goals per game, with Aston Villa conceding 1 and Bologna 1.8. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 for Aston Villa and 3 out of 5 for Bologna. In the first half, over 1.5 goals happened once in 5 for Aston Villa and twice for Bologna. In the second half, both teams have 3 instances of over 1.5 goals in 5 matches. Goal intervals show Aston Villa scores most frequently between 76-90 minutes (33%), and Bologna also in the 76-90 interval (50%). Aston Villa concedes evenly across intervals 16-90 minutes (20% each), while Bologna concedes 20% in intervals 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90. The overall stats on totals and second-half activity suggest at least three goals in this match, making the over 2.5 goals bet statistically optimal.

Corner Totals Analysis

Aston Villa averages 4.2 corners per match, and Bologna averages 4.4. Over the last five games, Aston Villa had over 9.5 corners 4 times out of 5, while Bologna had it 2 times out of 5. The line is set at 8.5 corners: over 8.5 is priced at 1.61, under 8.5 at 2.19. Based on these figures, considering over 8.5 corners is logical, given both teams' averages and Aston Villa's frequency. Additionally, Bologna's higher foul rate (17.6 on average) could lead to more set-pieces and consequently more corners. Overall, the match promises to be action-packed near the goals, supporting the choice of betting on over 8.5 corners.