Prediction for match Atletico Nacional — Deportes Tolima

Match Analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

In the Primera A on May 23, Atletico Nacional will face Deportes Tolima. According to the 1X2 odds, Atletico Nacional is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.68, a draw at 3.70, and a win for Deportes Tolima at 4.82. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 55.48% chance of an Atletico Nacional win, 25.19% for a draw, and 19.34% for a Deportes Tolima win. The odds for over 2.5 goals are at 1.88, and under 2.5 goals also at 1.88. For both teams to score, 'yes' is at 1.83, and 'no' is at 1.87. These figures suggest a moderate inclination towards a high-scoring match, but with some caution from the bookmakers.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Nacional defeated Deportes Tolima 1-0 (16.05.2026), thrashed La Equidad 7-1 (12.05.2026), and beat La Equidad 2-1 (09.05.2026). Deportes Tolima lost to Coquimbo Unido 0-3 (19.05.2026), were defeated by Atletico Nacional 0-1 (16.05.2026), and won against Deportivo Pasto 2-0 (13.05.2026). In their head-to-head on May 16, Atletico Nacional emerged victorious with a 1-0 win away. Over five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 56% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 2.2 offsides per game. Deportes Tolima showed 58.2% possession, 2 yellow cards, 7.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. These stats indicate disciplined play from both teams and a high level of ball control.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five games, Atletico Nacional's matches have an average total of 2.8 goals, with the team scoring 2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Deportes Tolima has an average total of 2, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8. In the last five matches, both teams have played 2 out of 5 games over 2.5 goals and 3 under. In terms of halves, both teams recorded 2 out of 5 games with over 1.5 goals in the first half and 1 out of 5 in the second half. Atletico Nacional most frequently scores during the 31-45, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals - 20% in each, while Deportes Tolima scores 50% of their goals in the 31-45 minute interval. Atletico Nacional concedes evenly across intervals: 25% in each of the four intervals (0-15, 31-45, 46-60, 61-75). Deportes Tolima concedes more often in the 16-30, 46-60, and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each). Given the average scoring rates, totals, and goal timing activity, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.88 seems justified.

Corner Bets

Atletico Nacional averages 4.2 corners per match, while Deportes Tolima averages 7. In a series of five matches, Atletico Nacional exceeded the 9.5 corners total 3 times, and Deportes Tolima 5 times. The line is set at 9.5 corners: over 9.5 is priced at 2.10, under 9.5 at 2.07. No clear favorite emerges for corners, but Deportes Tolima's high average and frequent overs make a bet on the over logical. Expect active wing play and numerous corner kicks.