Prediction for match Benfica — Braga

Match Analysis: Benfica vs Braga

In the Primeira Liga on 11.05.2026, Benfica will face Braga. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: a win for Benfica is priced at 1.45, a draw at 4.76, and a victory for Braga at 7.60. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Benfica - 66.87%, draw - 20.37%, Braga - 12.76%. Benfica appears to be the favorite based on all key metrics, as confirmed by both the percentages and the odds. Additionally, the over 2.5 goals total is offered at 1.71, which is an intriguing option considering both teams' recent scoring form.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Benfica has maintained an average possession of 55.8%, received 1.2 yellow cards per game, committed 11 fouls, and had 1.8 offsides. Braga's numbers are slightly lower: 54.8% possession, 3 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1 offside per match. In their last three games, Benfica's results were: 02.05.2026 Famalicão 2-2 Benfica, 25.04.2026 Benfica 4-1 Moreirense, 19.04.2026 Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Benfica. Braga's last three matches were: 07.05.2026 Freiburg 3-1 Braga, 03.05.2026 Braga 1-1 Estoril, 30.04.2026 Braga 2-1 Freiburg. The last head-to-head encounter was on 28.12.2025: Braga 2-2 Benfica.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Benfica has an average total of 3.2 goals per game, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1. Braga's average total is 2.6, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. For over 2.5 goals: both teams saw 3 out of their last 5 games end with three or more goals. By halves, Benfica exceeded 1.5 goals in both the first and second halves in 4 out of 5 matches, while Braga did so in 2 out of 5. Benfica often scores late (76-90 minutes, 33%), while Braga distributes their goals across three intervals: 16-30, 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes, each with 22%. In terms of goals conceded, Benfica is most vulnerable between 16-30 minutes (50%), while Braga's most susceptible periods are 16-30 and 76-90 minutes (40% each). These statistics confirm that both teams are capable of creating and converting chances, especially in the second half. Given that both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches, and considering Benfica's high scoring rate, betting on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Corner Totals Analysis

Benfica averages 9.6 corners per match, while Braga averages 4.2. In their last five matches, all of Benfica's games ended with over 9.5 corners, while only 1 out of 5 for Braga. Among the available lines for corners, the total closest to the average sum (13.8) is 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.83, under 9.5 at 1.85. For the corner outcome, Benfica is the favorite with odds of 1.28. Given Benfica's consistent high number of corners, it makes sense to consider a bet on their individual corner total or the overall total over 9.5.