Prediction for match Queretaro — Toluca

Match Analysis: Queretaro vs Toluca

In the Mexican Liga MX, Queretaro will face Toluca on April 4, 2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca is favored with odds of 1.55, a draw is at 4.10, and a Queretaro win is at 5.37. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Queretaro - 17.32%, draw - 22.68%, Toluca - 60.00%. These figures highlight Toluca's clear advantage, backed up by recent statistics in their head-to-head encounters. The betting line also offers options on totals and individual performances, but Toluca's win stands out as the main prediction with odds above 1.50.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at secondary indicators, Queretaro has had an average ball possession of 31.4% over their last 5 matches, with 3.8 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. Toluca outperforms in these metrics: 60.8% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Queretaro played as follows: 21.03.2026 Atlas - Queretaro 0-0, 15.03.2026 Tigres UANL - Queretaro 0-0, 07.03.2026 Queretaro - Club America 1-2. Toluca's recent games: 22.03.2026 Pachuca - Toluca 1-1, 19.03.2026 Toluca - San Diego 4-0, 15.03.2026 Toluca - Atlas 1-1. In their last head-to-head on 18.10.2025, Toluca defeated Queretaro 4-0.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Queretaro vs Toluca Match

Queretaro and Toluca have different scoring profiles. In their last five matches, Queretaro's average total goals are 2.2, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6 on average. Toluca's average total goals are 3.4, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.2. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 out of their last 5 matches. In the first half, Queretaro has 2 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals, while Toluca has only 1 out of 5. In the second half, Queretaro has just 1 out of 5 with over 1.5 goals, whereas Toluca has 4 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Queretaro most often scores between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (29% each), and concedes between 16-30 minutes (50%). Toluca most frequently scores between 46-60 minutes (42%) and concedes late (76-90 minutes - 40%). Considering Toluca's high scoring and attacking profile, along with Queretaro's lower scoring, a bet on Toluca's victory seems most justified.

Corner Kicks Betting

On average, over 5 matches, Queretaro takes 6.6 corners, while Toluca takes 4.8. In their last five games, Queretaro had 4 out of 5 matches go over 9.5 total corners, and Toluca had 3 out of 5. The total corners line closest to their average sum (11.4) is 9.5. Although odds are not specified for over 9.5 total corners, the frequency suggests a bet on the over is logical. For corner outcomes, Queretaro takes more on average, but Toluca appears stronger in terms of scoring and ball control. Overall, an active play on the wings and a sufficient number of set pieces can be expected.