Prediction for match Larisa — PAOK

Match Analysis: Larisa vs PAOK

In the Greek Super League on 22.02.2026, Larisa will face PAOK. The betting odds show a significant advantage for PAOK: a win for them is priced at 1.30, a draw at 5.15, and a victory for Larisa at 9.60. The probability distribution confirms PAOK's status as favorites: 72.05% chance of winning, 18.19% for a draw, and 9.76% for Larisa. This setup indicates a strong confidence among analysts in PAOK's victory, which is reflected in both the odds and the probabilities for the main outcomes.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Larisa has an average ball possession of 44.8%, receives 3.2 yellow cards, commits 19.2 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times per game. During the same period, PAOK averages 54.4% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Larisa's last three matches: 15.02.2026 Panathinaikos - Larisa 1-1, 07.02.2026 Larisa - Panetolikos 1-4, 31.01.2026 Volos - Larisa 0-2. PAOK's recent results: 19.02.2026 PAOK - Celta 1-2, 15.02.2026 PAOK - AEK Athens 0-0, 08.02.2026 Aris - PAOK 0-0. In their last head-to-head on 29.10.2025, PAOK defeated Larisa 4-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, Larisa averages a total of 2.2 goals per game (1.2 scored, 1 conceded), while PAOK averages 2.8 (1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded). Larisa had over 2.5 goals in just 1 of their last 5 matches, while PAOK had over 2.5 in 3 of 5. By halves, Larisa had over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 of 5 games, and in the second half, 1 of 5. PAOK had 3 of 5 games with over 1.5 goals in the first half, and 1 of 5 in the second half. Larisa most often scores in the intervals of 0-15, 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75 minutes (25% each), while PAOK frequently scores late in the game (76-90 minutes, 36%). Larisa most often concedes in the 31-45 minute interval (50%), and PAOK also in this period (40%). Given these stats, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified: PAOK has a strong goal-scoring profile, and Larisa is capable of scoring despite their low frequency of over 2.5 in recent matches. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.79.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over the last 5 matches, Larisa averages 3.8 corners, PAOK 4.4, totaling 8.2. For a total over 9.5 corners, Larisa has 2 out of 5 matches, PAOK 1 out of 5. Among available corner totals, the line closest to the average is 8.5: odds for over 8.5 are 1.81, under 1.87. PAOK is favored in the corner outcome with odds of 1.26. Based on the average corner activity and the not very high frequency of large totals, a bet on corner totals around 8-9 seems logical, leaning towards a moderate number of corners.